本文来自微信公众号：底层设计师（ID：Bottom-upDesigner）
很多人批评说，国内资本市场错过了一大批优秀的科技企业，也使得另一批科技企业因为缺乏资本的支持而错过了发展的机遇期。
guoneizhubanshichangbeipipingduikejileiqiyebingbuyouhao，yinweikejiqiyemenzaigongyeshidaidecaiwubaobiaoxia，wufayingli，jinerwufatixianjiazhi。wufadadaoagushangshitiaojian，zhinengxuanzeyuanzoutaxiang。
xianzai，kechuangbanlaile，weizheixieqiyedeipohebinggoutigonglejichu。
kechuangbankaiqizhiji，zhongjiejigoutijiaoziliaodezhiliangcanchabuqi，fanyingchuzaijifengzhouyutuijinzhixia，womengegehuanjiedezhunbeiqingkuang。congjianguanbumendaozhongjiejigou，zhunbeishangshideqiyehetouzizhe，kongpahenduozhunbeitoushenkechuangbandeqiyehetouzirendoumeiyouzuohaozhunbei。
IPO和并购过程中，科创板企业估值问题，是最核心、也必须解决的问题。guanyukechuangbandeguzhiwenti，zhengzaichengweijigoumenbixugongkedediyigebaolei。
zaizheichangzhanyizhong，jijiangdaolaidedaliangweiyinglidekejileiqiyedejinru，shihenduojigouconglaimeiyouzaoyudeqingjing。
5yuezhongxun，jingjiguanchabaoguanliyuchuangxinanliyanjiuyuandebimenhuiyishang，jidangkechuangbandeguzhiwenti，zhuanjiamenjichulegezidedaan。
一、不同情景的结论
qiyezhiduoshaoqian？butongqingjingxiajielunshibuyiyangde。zhonglianpinggujituanfuzongcailujiegangshuo，binggou、ipo，haishicaiwushangzuojiliang，doushibuyiyangde。
birushuo，zaibinggoujiaoyiguochengzhong，kaolvyigeqiyedejiazhi，gengduodijiyumubiaogongsi，shougoufangnengdailaishenmexiaoyi，xietonglidengdeng。
ruguoipodehuayoubuyiyangle，birukechuangqiyedeyujishizhi，zheiyiweizheerjishichangdejiage。
“zaiagushichang，ganggushichang，tongyangdeqiye，jiazhiyuqishibuyiyangde。”lujiegangshuo，ciwaihaiyouguannianjiashedewenti，tongyijiaqiye，duibutongdetouzifanglaijiang，jiazhiyeshibutongde。
科技企业的估值，还要考虑在企业所处的发展阶段。duiyuchuchuangqiye，chengshuqiyedeguzhifangfazaishicaozhongbingbushiyong。
muqian，duiyuchuchuangchengzhangdeqiyelaishuo，henduofangfapianlilun，shiwucaozuoguochengzhongyougezhonggeyangdenandu。
birushuo，duiyuliuxingdekebigongsifangfa，zaiyingyongshihenrongyizouruwuqu。remendebandaotixingyejiushiyigeanli，meiguodengyixieguojiadebandaotixingyexiangduijinruchengshujieduan，erzhongguohaishizaigaochengzhangjieduan。“butongdeguojia，guzhizhibiao，duibidezhibiaokendingbutaiyiyang。”
现在，估值做成一个准确的数字已经越来越不适合了。
lujiegangrenwei，zaizhengquan、guozidenghenduoxitongzhong，douxiwangbatouzizuochengzhunquedeshuzi，danshi，congpinggujigoudejiaodu，xiwangnenggougengduodeqiangdiaoduibeipinggudeqiyeduozuoyixieminganxingfenxi，“zuoweizhongjiejigou，xiwangweijiaoyishuangfangtigongcankao，congyuanbendedanyizhi，bianweitigongyigequjianzhi。” lujiegangcheng。
er、jishuzichanyugongsiguzhi
liuzhengpingdegongsicongshijishuzhuanyihejishushangyehuadefuwu，tamenkeyibeirenweishiyiqun“jishutouxingjia”。tamendeyewuzhong，duijishujiazhidepinggushiyigehexinwenti。liuzhengpingshikeweiguojijishuzhuanyigongsichangwufuzongjingli。
刘正平称，本质上，技术价格由技术供给和技术需求的动态变化决定的。dancongshijilaikan，jishuzuoweiyizhongteshudeshangpin，qijiagedequedingyuanbiputongshangpinfuza，zheilaizijishudefuzaxinghexinjishuweilaishichangdebuquedingxing。
zhongdadexinjishuzongshizaishizhixingfazhanzhihoucaibeidajiarenshi，congchongmanxuanwo、pushuo milidezaoqijishudedahaizhongshibie，faxiangongyeyingyongqianjingheshangyejiazhidexinjishu，bingpingguqijiazhi，duisuoyoujishujinglirenlaishuoshiyixiangjudadetiaozhan。
puhuayongdaozhongguopingguzixunfuwuhehuorenhuangxiaolin，zaigongzuozhonghuiyudaozaicaiwushangruhejiliangzheixiezichandejiazhi。
huangxiaolinshuo，jishuzichanshiyixinxixingshicunzaidezhishixingzichan，jishuhanliangyuegao，fugaideyingyongchangjingyueguangfan，qijingjijiazhiyeyuegao。
chulejizhongzhuliudejishupinggufangfawai，jishuzichandepingguyeyushijujin，yongxianchuyixiexinxingdepinggufangfa，birushiwuqiquanfahelvdifa。
huangxiaolinshuo，zaiqiyemianlinbuquedingxingdeshichanghuanjingxia，jishuzhanlveshiqiyezhengtizhanlvejuecedezhongyaoyihuan，shiwuqiquanfajiangjishudejiazhiheqiyezhanlvejuecelianxiqilai，tuxianjishuzaibuquedingxinghuanjingxiadejiazhi。
lvdifa，zeshicongchuangyedejiaoduchufa，tongguofenxiyituojishujinxingchuangyedechuchuangqiyedejiazhilaijieshijishubenshendejiazhi。zheizhongfangfadeyingyongtupolejishupinggudefanchou，congerkaoyanpingguguwenduiyuchuangxinxingchuchuangqiyepinggudejingyanheshili。zheixiedoushiweilexinjingjititieshendazaodexinxingpinggufangfa。
youyuliuzhengpingdegongsi，yehuichiyouyixiekejigongsidegufen，dangyaotuichuzheixiegongsishi，jiuhuicongjishudejiazhiwenti，bianchengyigegongsijiazhidewenti。
企业价值评估的核心课题是如何估算未来的现金流。
buguo，duiyujishuchuangxinqudongxinggongsi，youqishichanpinshangweiwanchengyanfa，huochanpingangjinrushichangdegongsi，“gusuanweilaidexianjinliushifeichangkunnanshenzhishiwufawanchengdeyixiangrenwu。” liuzhengpingshuo。
zaishijianzhong，liuzhengpingdefangshishi：xianyijishujiageweijichu，gusuanzheixieqiyejishudejiazhi，weilaideshouyi，zaijinxingjiuzheng。
三、从估值到博弈
huangxiaolindefaxianshi，zibenshichangjiyule“yingkeji”qiyegenggaodeguzhishuiping。jishudejiazhiduiyuzheixie“yingkeji”qiyelaishuo，xianranbanyanlezhongyaojiaose。jishudefuzaxinghexinjishuweilaishichangdebuquedingxinggouchenglezhuyaodezhangai。danruhepingguzheigejishu？
qinghuadaxuequanqiuchanyeyanjiuyuantichuletumcmoxing，zheishiyigeguanyuchanyechenggonghexinxingjishuchanyehuachengshududemoxing。zheigemoxingshijiyuqinghuadaxueyangbinjiaoshouhezhuhengyuanjiaoshoutichudezhanlvejiezoulilun。zheishiyigedongtaihuanjingxia，ruhezhidingzhanlvedekuangjia。
清华大学全球产业研究院首席研究员宋德铮称，TUMC产业成熟度评估模型的四个维度是，技术（Technology）、用户效用(user Utility)、市场(Market)和产业链(industry Chain)。
tumcshiyigechengzhangxingdemoxing。congzheigemoxinglipandingchanyedefazhanjieduan，zheijiuweijishuchuangxinzhedefazhanzhanlvetigongleyigesilu。
birushuo，chanyelianweidushang，yigexinjishuyaoshengcun，xuyaotupolianggejiedian，shouxianbixuqianrudaoyiyoudechanyezhong，huoshizhaodaoyiyouchanyedetidaipin。dangshichangshangyuelaiyueduocanyuzhejinlai，jiuhuikaishiyouyigezhuanyoujiazhilianyaosuchuxian，zheishidiergejiedian，manmanxingchengxindechanyelian，xinxingchanyejiudanshengle。
yiyaolingyushichuangxindezhongdian，yujiweilaijiangyouyiqunzheigelingyudeqiyeshangshi。buguo，yiyaolingyufeichangteshu，henduotouzixiaqushishuniankenengdoubuhuichenggongshangyehua，yishiguzhidenandianlingyu。
beijingdaxueyaoxuejiaoshou、kaixiyiyaochuangshirencenghuihui，tichuyigesancengcideguzhifangfa。tabaxianyoudeshengwuyiyaoqiyezhuyaoshikefenweisanlei，fenbieshiyuanshichuangxinqiye、chuangxinjishuqiye、kejichanpinqiye。suiransanleiqiyedounenggouchuangzaojingjijiazhi，danshibutongcengjideqiye，duichanyedejiayunenglibutong，qisuoshejidejiaoyimoshiyebutong。
曾慧慧认为，在医药领域，真正的创新都是原始创新企业推动的，这种企业拥有驾驭其所在产业领域的能力。
zaichuangxinjishuqiye，keyitongguojishunenglibuduandigenjinzuixindejinzhan，bingqiekenenghuodeyibufendeliyi。keshizaiyigexifenlingyunei，chuletop5deqiyewai，qitaqiyeshimeiyoushangyejihuide。
disanleikejichanpinqiye，shibachanpinzhuanhuaweishangpin。zheileiqiyezhiyoutongguoshangyefangfa，tongguoqitadefangmianqieru，zhuankuaiqian。chuyubutongcengjidechuangxinqiye，houxudejiayunenglishibutongde。duiyiyaoqiyelaijiang，zuobutongjibiedeyaowu，yiweizhebutongdejiaoyimoshi。
jinguanyouzhejiaoweixitongdekuangjia，danzaigaotejiazhixinghehuorenfandalongkanlai，guzhi“shu”decengmianbushizuizhongyaode。tarenwei，guzhiwentideshizhi，yifangmianshifaxianjiazhibenshen，lingyifangmianshirenyurendexinliboyi。
tashuo，jinguantouzishizaibuquedingxingzhongxunzhaoquedingxing，danbuquedingxingtaida，jiumeifazuojiazhitouzi，yushitouzizai“dao”cengmiandelinianbeiquanbutuifan。
“guzhizuigenbendefangfashichedilejiezheijiagongsi。zheijiagongsizuizhongyaodejiushiqiyejia。suoyitouzizuizhongyaodeshikanren，kanrenjiubianchengqianrenqianmian。” fandalongshuo，“yiqiedoushijiazhiguan、jizhideshengli，guigenjiedidoushirendeshengli”。
四、回归商业本源
wulunruheguzhi，zuizhongyaodehaishigongsibenshen。
nankaidaxuejinrongfazhanyanjiuyuanjiaoshou、yuanzhangtianlihuitichulegongsizhilidezhongyaoxing。tashuo，gongsizhilichuangzaojiazhi，“kechuangbanchuletigongzijinzhichiyiwai，gengshijizheixieqiyeneibudeheguitigongleguifangongsizhilijiegoudejihui，zheiyeshikechuangbandeyigezhongdadeyiyi。”
zailianghaodegongsizhilijiegouxia，zaidajiaxinrendejichushang，gongsijianghuodegengduodeziben。“haodegongsizhilideqiyehechadegongsizhilideqiye，jianglaidefazhankenengshitianrangzhibie，”tianlihuicheng。
zhongguorenmindaxuejinrongyuzhengquanyanjiusuoshouxiyanjiuyuanshiweicheng，kechuangqiyedeguzhizhuyaoyousanzhongfangshi：duibiaofa、dutexingpinggu、chengzhangxingpinggu。buguo，“guzhiwentidebenzhishiruhedingyihaogongsi。”shiweishuo，tahaishihuaxiajishiguanlizixunjituanlingxianzhuanjia。
shiweitichuleyige“qiyedesuming”degainian。zaitakanlai，qiyedesumingyou3gejizhigoucheng。
qiyishizhilijizhi。duiyukechuangxingqiyelaishuo，“guquanfensan，zhiquanjizhong“，”guquanguoyujizhongdeqiyebukenengyouweilai“。
qiershijilijizhi。yaozuoyigeweidadeshiye，jiuyaoxunzhaozhangqidehehuoren，zhangqidehehuorenfanyingdaoguquanshangjiushituanduichigu。
qisanshijiazhiguan，wenhuajizhi。yigeqiyenengbunengzhangda，keyicongyikaishidepeitailimianzhaodaowenhuadeyuanquan。buguanzheigeqiyechuangshirendexinggezenyangchayi。
shiweituanduiyanjiuguojibaigeshangshigongsi，fugailezhongguozhuyaodedagongsi。tashuo，youdeshirujia，xiangzhangruimin；youdeshidaojia，xiangmeide；youdeshibingjia，xianghuaweiderenzhengfei，doushidaiyouwenhuasecai，bazheixierengongtongdewenhuatediangaikuoqilai，wenhuayikaishijiushizhangqizhuyide。
“今天一些新的创业团队，可能是从文化来说，一开始就投机主义。zheishizhongguojishinianlaiweishenmehenduoqiyekejishangbunengtupo，zuihexindewenti。”
“ruguoshizhangqizhuyideqiyeyibandounengcheng。”shiweishuo。
本文来自微信公众号：底层设计师（ID：Bottom-upDesigner）