【编者按】纵观2018年,可以说中国5G产业是所有产业中经历变故最多的一个产业。本文从5G的应用层面、产业空间、领域、投资等几个方面阐述了这个风口的迷人与难缠。
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风口:万物互联万亿空间
相较于前四代通讯技术,中国5G产业将实现从支持个人应用向行业应用的跨越,也就是说,5G是未来人工智能等技术的重要“土壤”。
shouxian,congyingyongcengmianlaishuo。guojiwuxianbiaozhunhuajigou3gppjiang5gyingyongchangjingfenweisanlei,qiyishiembb(zengqiangxingyidongkuandai),zhixiangjiaoyu4g,5gfengzhisulvjiangdadaoshushigbps,zheikeweiyunjisuan、dashujudengxuyaojinxinghailiangliuliangshujuchulidejishutigonglianghaodewangluojichu;qiershiurllc(chaogaokekaoxingyuchaodishiyantongxin),zheiyitexingkeduizidongjiashi、yuanchengyiliao、zhinengdianwangdengxingchengzhicheng;qisanshimmtc(hailiangwulianwangtongxin),keduizhihuichengshi、huanjingjiance、zhinengnongye、senlinfanghuodengyichuanganheshujucaijiweimubiaodeyingyongchangjingxingchengzhicheng。
从前述5G的应用场景可以看出,相较于此前1G与2G致力于通信,3G与4G着重于服务个人应用,5G将为行业发展提供更多支撑。欧美3G与4G商用的领先,孕育了手机巨头苹果和、shejiaoyingyongjutoufacebookdeng。yujiweilaidehenduogaokejichanye,douxuyao5gzheiyijichutongxinwangluodejianshexingcheng。keyishuo,5gshiweilaichuangxinjigaokejijishuheyingyongfazhandeturangyujichu,guanxizheyigeguojiazaiweilaigongye4.0、wanwuhulianshidaizhongnengfoujuyuzhudaodiweidezhigaodianzhiyi。
congchanyekongjiankan,xiangguanjigouyuce,congzhongguolaikan,yujizhongguo5gchanyezai2020nianjiangdaidongyue4840yiyuandezhijiechanchu,2025nian、2030nianjiangfenbiezengzhangdao3.3wanyiyuan、6.3wanyiyuan,shinianjiandenianjunfuhezengzhanglvwei29%。
关口:“科技压制”与“缺芯”
今年以来,美国对实质制约我国5G等产业发展的核心产品——,以禁运相胁迫。虽然包括华为等企业供应链均遍布全球涉及上万家厂商,但改变不了中国企业在一些基础芯片方面没有自主规模化生产能力的现实。
具体看,5G芯片分为RRU基站、光通信、智能机三个主要领域,其中RRU基站技术更迭快,门槛高企,我国自给率最低。在这一领域中我国目前仅在接收端和发射端主处理器可实现大规模商用替代。另外,南京美辰微电子在正交调制器、DPD接收机、ADC等芯片产品上已有可量产方案。目前正在小批量验证阶段。在中频和射频领域,国内厂商自给率几乎为0,这也是中兴此前遭遇禁运时遇到最为棘手的问题。
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投资:周期将启,设备先行
haiwaishichangsuishouyazhi,dan5gjinguoneizibenkaizhibianhuishi4gshidaide1.6beizuoyou,chanyefazhankongjianzhideqidai。
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目前,我国三大电信运营商已获得全国范围5G中低频段试验频率使用许可。而据媒体报道,预计5G牌照发放会在今年年底或2019年上半年,2020年5G将实现规模商用。
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活动推荐:“5G物联峰会”
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