zuotian（5yue22ri）xiawu，armzhongguodegongguanzhijiedianhuahuxiu，biaoshiyuandingyu6yuechuzaishenzhenjuxingdexinchanpin（aixiangguan）fabuhuibeitongzhi“quxiao”，erqieyemeiyouyanhoujuxingdejutijihua。
zaiguaduandianhuazhihou，wodeneixinqishiyijingyoulezuihuaideshexiang。
果不其然，就在昨晚7点多，BBC直接拿到了ARM的内部通知文件：因为包含来自美国的技术，ARM（英国）已经要求员工“停止所有与华为及其子公司正在生效的合约、支持及未决约定”。
看到这条新闻之后，虎嗅也向ARM中国相关人士了解到了部分情况——ARM中国的新产品发布会取消，同样是因为来自英国母公司的压力，显然是想彻底避嫌。
huaweizaiwanxieshihouyefabiaoleyifenjianduanshengming：
womenzhongshiyuhezuohuobandemiqieguanxi，danyerenshidaotamenzhongdeyixieyouyuzhengzhidongjidejuedingerchengshoudeyali。womenxiangxinzheiyilingrenyihandejumiannenggoudedaojiejue，womendeshouyaorenwurengranshijixuxiangquanqiukehutigongshijieyiliudejishuhechanpin。
zhici，armchedizantingyuhuaweihezuoyichengdingju。danwomendaodiyinggaizenmekanzheijianshi？
yi、armshishenmeyangdecunzai？
duiyushaoshurenlaishuo，armdemingzibingbumosheng，bijingzheishiyijiapingjiezishenjishuzhutuizhenggezhinengshoujishidaidegongsi。
armgongsidequantouchanpinjiushi“armchuliqi”，tadetedianshicaiyongrisc（jingjianzhilingji，xiangduiyupcshiyongdeciscfuzazhilingjieryan），tongguoduijisuanjidicengyunxingdejingjian，rangzhenggechuliqigengjiagaoxiao。zheiyerangqizaidianyuanyouxian、yidongshiyongdezhinengzhongduanshidai，chengweilezuiyoudexuanze。
当然，还有一点非常重要，就是ARM公司自己的运行机制——ARM自己不销售实体产品，而是只销售技术授权，从最基础的指令集，再到特定的Core设计，甚至是后续的处理器优化魔改，都有专门的技术授权项目。
这种模式本身就是一个伟大的发明，某种程度上堪比台积电的晶圆代工业务，原因主要有两点——
一是大幅降低了移动端处理器的进入门槛。
设计kebushishenmeqingsonghaowandeshiqing，qiebushuoruhezhaolanzugouduoderencaijinxingqianyanjishuyanfa，haiyoujiushiyicijiukenenghaozishangqianwandedeliupian、ceshi，zuihouhaiyouruanyingjiandejianrong、youhuadengdeng。
danshiyouyuarmdecunzai，shoujichuliqichangshangdefudanyixiazijiuqinglexialai，yinweitamenbuzaixuyaoqujinxingfengxianzuigaodechuliqidicengkaifa，ershikeyizhijiecongarmshouzhongmailaishouquan，ranhounazhezheifenshouquanqudaozijiajingyuanchanghuozhebiejiajingyuandaigongchang，liyongarmjidexinpianshejiziliao“kuaisu（xiangjiaoyuziyanxinpianeryan）”shengchanchuzijisuoxuyaodecpu、socdengxinpian。
erqiezheizhongmoshiqishiyeyalizhongzhong，armtongyangxuyaobeifuzhenggeshengtaiduiyuchuliqixingnengjinzhandeqidai，jiaruxiangyaozhuanqugengduodeyingshou，yezhiyoujinyibujiangarmshengtaizuodayitiaolu。zheihaowuyiwenshiyijiazhidejingpeidegongsi（shuoarmtangzheshouqiandemeitidoukeyihuiquxixishuile）。
其二，是ARM的授权机制，保证了整体生态的秩序，维护了软硬件生态的良好兼容。
butongyupcshidaidex86jiagou，armderiscjiagouqishiyanjindefuduyizhihenda，zaipangdadexingnengxuqiumianqian，armdezhilingjiyijingjinxingleshiduocideyanjin。ruguoxiangyaobayigechuliqideyingjianxingnengchongfenfahuichulai，neimeruanjianxitongbixuduizheixiezhilingjijinxinglianghaodezhichi。
yezhengshiyinweiarmdecunzai，zhenggearmchuliqidezhilingjiyanjinjiezouyizhibeikongzhidehenhao，xitongjibuxuyaopinfandiqushiyingxindezhilingji，younenggengshencengcidiquduizhilingjijinxingyouhua。
zhiyuarmweishenmexianzaiye“fanlianburen”huawei，jiujingxianyoudearmchuliqizhongbaohanduoshaolaizimeiguodejishu？jiezhifagaohuxiuyeweinengcongxiangguanrenshichudedaoshuofa。danxiangxinhaishishoudaolelaizimeiguozhengfudezhijieyali。
taoyongrenzhengfeiqiantianjieshoucaifangshideyijuhuida：“meiguoshifazhiguojia，meiguoqiyebunengbuzunshoufalv，shitijingjiyaozunshoufalv。meitiyebuyaolaomameiguoqiye，dajiaduoweimeiguoqiyeshuohua，yaomajiumameiguozhengke。”
er、armzhongguojiujingshigeshenmeqingkuang
jiuzaiqunian5yuefen，huxiucengduiarmzhongguohezigongsidechenglizuoguozhuanmendebaodao（《zhongguoxindiyici“tuweizhan”》）。
此前流出的ARM中国集资PPT
zheijiahezigongsizuidadeliangdianjiuzaiyuzhongfangtouzizhezhangu51%，armzhangu49%，qiezhijiejieguanlearmzaizhongguojingneidesuoyouyewu。
此前流出的ARM中国集资PPT
kexideshi，guanlizhudaoquanbingbudengyuzhengtijishudezhuanrang。zaidangshiliuchudeyifenarmzhongguojizipptzhong，jiumingquedizhanshilearmzhongguohearmyingguomugongsiyijizhongguokehuzhijiandeshouquanguanxi：armyingguomugongsixianxingduiarmzhongguogongsijinxingshouquan，suihouarmzhongguocaikeyiduizhongguokehujinxingshouquan，zheigeshunxubingbunengdaluan。
kaolvdaoxianzaiarmyingguomugongsiyijingxiafatongzhizantinghezuo，armzhongguozigongsishimeiyoubanfakuaguoyingguomugongsideyunxu，duihuaweijinxingxiangyingjishushouquande。
lveyoushenyideshi，armzhongguodechengliqishiyuhaisijueqiyoumibukefendeguanxi。yilaihuaweidezhinengshoujichixukuaisuchengzhang，erlaihuaweibenshenzaizhenggetongxinlingyujiushilongtou，xianzaigengshiyijingyanfachulekunpeng920zheiyangdearmfuwuqicpu。zhuanmenchuangjianyigezhongguozigongsiwuyihuirangshuangfangdehezuogengjiafangbian。
san、huaweihuizaoshoudaoduodadeyingxiang？
keguandishuo，yinggaibidabufenrenxiangdedouda。
根据ARM自己的财报，2018财年中国区的销售额占了ARM全球销售额的约20%，而这个数字绝大部分都是贡献的。
zhengruwomenshangwensuotidaode，armduiyuchuliqideshouquanshiduozhongduoyangde，dancongzuidicengdejichujiagoudaozuizhongdechuliqi，zhuyaokeyifenweizheimejidang：
1. 首先是处理器的指令集。zhilingjiqishijiushiarmchuliqideyibufenyingjianshejiluoji，yeshizhenggearmchuliqizuijichudebufen。nikeyibaxianshizhongdecpukanchengyigediandeng，zhilingjijiushiyifenxiangxideshuomingshu。jiarunizugouqiangda，niyekeyianzheshuomingshulaizixingzao“deng”。zhiyaonianzhaozhilingjilaizuochuliqi，neimenijiuyidingnenggouzhaodaojianrongdexitong，bingqiezuizhongzaishengtaidebangzhuxiashixianyingyong。
2. 其次是Core“核心”的授权。yinweizhilingjihaishitaijichu，suoyiarmyehuitigongshijidechuliqishejituzhijikehu。liruzuixindecortex-a76、cortex-a55。zheixieshejituzhishiyijingnenggouzhijietigongjijingyuanchangtourushengchandejibie。
3. 最后是要对ARM处理器改进、调整的授权。例如华为、高通、，geziqishidouduiarmchuliqiyouyidingdejishujilei，douhuixuanzezaiarmshangyanfaxinchuliqi，shenzhishijiagoujieduanjiucanyujinqu，jinxingzijidechuliqiyouhua，zheiyeshiweishenmexianzaigaotong、sanxingduiyuzijisocxinpianzhonghexindechenghuzhongmeiyoulearmzijidaihaodeyuanyin。
根据现有的信息，华为很可能已经获得了ARMv8指令集的永久授权。huanyanzhi，huaweizhishaokeyizixingyanfaarmchuliqi，bingqiejixuxiangshoudaozhenggeshengtaiduiyuzheizhongzhilingjidejianrongxing。
danzaogaodeshi，haizaibuduandiedaigengxindearm coreshouquan、yijichuliqigaijinyouhua、shencengcidexiezuodeng，kendingdouhuishoudaozantinghezuodeyingxiang。
而从实际的产品层面说，假如接下来美国的相关禁令继续持续，假如华为依旧想要在自家产品上保持芯片足够的竞争力，那么华为实际上就要完成原来“ARM+竞争对手”的工作量。yaozhidao，qianzhekeshiyijiazairiscchuliqilingyushengenglekuai30nian、yongyouchaoguo6000mingyuangongdelaopaibandaotigongsi。
华为海思大概率很难一下子承受如此之大的挑战。
不过前几个月已经曝光、坊间传闻下个月就将发布的麒麟985处理器很可能不会受太大影响，bijinganzhaobandaotixingyetongchangdeyanfashizhangjisuan，qilin985yinggaizaoyijinruledaguimoliupiandejieduan。zhiyupaizai985zhihoudeqilin990，muqianzemeiyouzugoudexinxiliangnalaipanduanyingxiangchengdu。
dankeyikendingdeshi，qilin990zhihoudexiangmudoujiangzaoyubuxiaodemafan。gengbuyaotixiangfuwuqichuliqi、jizhanxinpianzheixiehuaweizijiaxinpianzhengzaishejidexinlingyule。
四、个人看法及总结
mouzhongchengdushanglaishuo，wogerenjuedearmzantinghezuodaobusuanzuiyanzhongde。
jiunashoujisocxinpianlaishuo，huaweideqilin980qishiyijingdadaoleshijielingxianshuiping（xingneng、tongxinnengli、nenghao），erqiewomenxianzaizhengchuyu4gwangluojixudafanweipuji，5gtuiguanghaizaichixujinxingzhongdekongdangqi。erzhinengshoujibenshendexingnengyejinruleyigexiangduipinghuandefazhanqi，yaoshizhendexiangnaqilin980jiangjiuyongyiliangnianyebushibukeyi。
相比之下，芯片的生产要要命得多。麒麟980的出色一定程度上也要归功于台积电的7nm制程工艺，目前国内的晶圆厂稳定量产水平最高还停留在14nm左右。做一个简单的算法，工艺差2倍，面积就要大4倍（工艺是边长，面积需要平方），功耗和发热也要同步上涨。变“胖”之后的麒麟980，那是绝对如何都塞不进你现在的手机的。
haowuyiwen，jintianguoneikendingyouhuiyinweiarmdezantinghezuoxianqiyibo“zizhuchuangxin”dehusheng，danyezhengshizheigeshihou，womenfaneryoubiyaozaifanhuitouqududurenzhengfeiqiantiancaifangshishuoguodeliangduanhua：
weishenmebuxiyige“lengshuizao”ni？worenwei，womenzuizhongyaodeshiyaoyaolengjing、chenzhe。rexuefeiteng、kouhaomantianfei，zuihoudazhangshibuxingyemeiyong，zuizhongyaonengdayingcaishizhende。
zizhuchuangxinzuoweiyizhongjingshenshizhidegulide，zhanzairenleiwenmingdejichushangchuangxincaishizhengquede。danshiwomenyaokandao，kejichuangxinshixuyaozhanzaiqianrendejianbangshangqianjinde，biruwomendehaisibingfeicongyuantoukaishizizhuchuangxin，yejibierenjiaonaledaliangzhishichanquanfeiyong，youxieshiqiandinglejiaochaxukexieyi，youxiexieyishiyongjiushouquande，nizhongyouwo，wozhongyouni，zaibierendejichushangxingchenglewomenzijidechuangxin。
yinweibandaotizhendeshiyigebudebu“quanqiuhua”dexingye。
图片来自：摩尔精英
guangshi2017nian，zhenggebandaotichanyedezongchanzhijiugaoda4300yimeiyuan，suizhicuishengdedianzichanyegengshigaoda1.5wanyimeiyuan。zheihaibusuanbandaotixingyejugaobuxiadecailiaofeiyongheyanfatouru。
在如此高速迭代而竞争激烈的前沿科技行业，一味追求自主创新，那或许才是最糟糕的结果。