【techweb】6yue1ridijiaoshenqingcailiao，7yue7rikaiqishengou，zhongxinguojinaxiakechuangbanmingluokaishiyilaizuikuaidezhucesudu。
当然，这一切都在华为高端duangong、taijidianmingquefumeijianchangdebeijingxia---zhenggezhongguobandaotichanyepoqiedixuyaozaiwaibugaoyaxiaqiusheng，zuoweidaluweiyijubei14nmxinpiandaigongnenglidezhongxinguoji，zaizibenlangchaozhongyinglailenandedegaosuzengzhangqi。
ranerzaizhaogushuzhong，bunengkanchuzhongxinguojirengcunzaimingxiandetouzifengxian，shenzhishijinqiwanquanwufagaishandejingkuang：
1，先进制程远未达到盈亏平衡点
2，高昂的固定资产折旧费
6yue1ridezhaogushuzhong，smicyimingquezaiagushangshideshouyaomude，shiweishanghaizhongxinnanfangde14nmji28nmyishangjishuyanfamuzi（zhan40%）。qizhong，12yingcunxinpiansn1xiangmudemujizijintouziewei80yiyuanrenminbi，yongyumanzujianshe1tiaoyuechanneng3.5wanpiande12yingcunshengchanxianxiangmudebufenzijinxuqiu。
genjugongsijichudechannengjihuabiao，yu2023niandida35000pian/yuemubiaoxiangbi，rengranyou29000pian/yuedechaju，zhongxinnanfangjiangyong3nianzuoyoufenjieduanshixiangaimubiao。
genju5yuezhongxindijiaodezhaogushuomingshu，diyijieduanjijinnian5yue16riqiantouru65yimeiyuan，shixian14nmjingyuanchanxian6000pian/nianchannengyishixian，zijinzhuyaolaiyuanweiguojiaerqidajijinde15yimeiyuanyijishanghaierqijijinde7.5yimeiyuan。
shishizhengming，touruhoudechanxianrengchuyu“xuqiudayugongji”dejumian。weile“xiaohua”shoushangdedingdan，smicxuyaozaidierjieduan、yejiushi2020niandiqiantouru11.4yimeiyuan，jixutishengyuechanneng。qizijinquanbulaizismicdeliudongxingzijin，yijicongagugupiaodeyijiahuoli。
根据历史增长速度，我们预估在2020年底前，SMIC可实现约1.2~1.5万片月产能。
ruguoshunli，smicjiangzaizuihouyibushang，touruyue14yimeiyuan，dadao2023niandiqianshixian35000pian/yuechannengdeshizhixingtisheng。ruoshangshubujushunli，jiangzaiweilaijinianshixianruxiashouru：
womengenjuganggupilude2020q1liangchan14nmjingyuanhexiaoshoushouru，chubugujidanpianpingjunjiagezai1307meiyuanzuoyou。ruguodanpianjunjiabubian，yujiweilai5nian14nmxinpiannenggouweizhongxinnanfangdailaizongji22.44yimeiyuanyingshou（zheheyue157yirenminbi）。dangran，zheixianggujixuanzexinghushile14nmliangpinlvtishengsuodailaideqianzaishouyizengzhang。
congcaiwujiaodujiang，xiangmudetouzihuibaolvjiaodi，zaibukaolvzhexianlvhechannengchixutouruzengzhanglvdeqingkuangxia，gaixiangmudetouruyaozai2038niancainengshixianchengbenhuishou。
yinci，zhongxinnanfangde14nmxiangmubingbunengzaijin3nianneiweizhongxinguojideyejidailaidafuzengzhang，danzaizongyingshoudegongxianbilihuiyousuotisheng。
ruguoqiangdiaosmiczhengtiyingshouqingkuang，14nmchanxiandejuechengbenjiangconggengdiduandezhichengshouyizhongjuntan。
2020nian1yue，smichuodehuawei14nmfinfetzhichengdingdan，zongji1200wanmeiyuandeqilin710adazairongyao4tyi1200yuanzuoyoudejiagezaishichangshangzhanjuqianyuanjiyixizhidi。
zuoweirongyao4thexinjisuandanyuan，710asuiranyanyongshangdaidujiadehaisijiagou，quezaixingnengshangtianchadibie。duibi2018niantuichuderongyaonova 3i，cpuzhupincong2.2jiangzhi2.0ghz，pingmucong2340*1080fenbianlvxiajiangdizhi1560*720。
huanjuhuashuo，zhongxinguoji14nmyutaijidian12nmjishushuipingxiangchazhishao2nianyishang。
图，荣耀Nova 3i、4t部分参数对比
zaixinpiandaigonglingyu，danpianchengbenyoukeshimianjiheliangpinlvgongtongjueding。cankaoshangshuji2018nianrongyaonova 3iyu2020nian4tfashoudingjia，houzheyoushibuzu。womenyouliyoufantuismicban710azaichengbenshangyuangaoyutsmcban710。zheibidingdandezhanlveyiyiyuangaoyujingjiyiyi，yichengweiyeneibuzhengdeshishi。
一边利润有限，一边资产折旧拖后腿。
zhongsuozhouzhi，shangshigongsidegudingzichanxuyaomeinianyiyidingbilikouchuzhejiufei。jibiannideshebeifangzaichangfanglichihui，qizhongchanshengfushouyirengjianganzhaoquanyifayujinglirunduichong。
genjuzhongxinguojiganggupiludeq1maolilvwei25.8%jisuan，yujizhongxinnanfang2020nian14nmjingyuanxiaoshouchuangzaodemaolizai2832wanmeiyuanzuoyou。dangran，zheihaishichanxianmanzaideqingkuangxia。
ruguojiashangjuezhejiufei，zhishaozaikejiande2020niandizhongxinnanfangshikuisunde。
图，5年和10年折旧期限对中芯国际上市主体业绩影响
womenwufaquedingzhongxinguojicaiquleduoshaoniandeshebeizhejiunianxian，yinergenjuzhaogushuxianshideliangzhongjiduanqingkuangzuohouxugusuan。
5年时限下，折旧对中芯国际主体利润影响在-3.62亿美元左右。影响波动最大的情况将出现在2021年，将对中芯国际产生4.34亿美元的净利润抵扣。
ranerkaolvdaozhongxinguojishangshihoumianlindeyejiyali，ruobaoshoudicaiyong10nianzuoweizhejiuqixian。yinci，2020nian~2022nianyujihuishizhongxinguojilirunfenbiejianshao0.62yimeiyuan、0.92yimeiyuanhe1.13yimeiyuan。
7yue5ri，zhongxinguoji（688981）quedingfaxingjiawei27.46yuan/gu，duiyingdefaxingqianshiyinglvwei83.44bei，lvxiexingshiqianfaxinghouduiyingdeshiyinglvwei109.25bei，pbguzhixiafaxingqianshijinglv3.44bei，duibizhongxinganggulishizai0.7-3beipbqujianbodong，hgushichangjinqiyijiyujinhu5beidepbguzhi。jiezhifagao，zhongxinguoji（00981）zai40.5gangyuanshangxiafudong。
jinguantijilezhongxinguojishijicaiwuyalijiqianzaipaomo，womentongshiyeyaoqiangdiaosmiczaikechuangbancunzaidejudayoushi：zuoweidaluweiyiyijia（meicuo，jinciyijia）jubei14nmzhichengdejingyuandaigongchang，chuantongguzhifangfazaiyidingchengdushanghuiyuzibenshichangdefanyingyousuobeili；lingwai，dajijindengguozidezhijiezibenzhichi，xianjingongyibufentongguo“nan、beizhongxin”deguquanfentanshejijianxiaolebaobiaoyali。
danggujiabeilizibenluoji，duochudeyijiazebeichengweipaomo。agushichangpianhaoduanxianchaozuo，jinqibandaotiguzhizhengzaijiasushangzhang，huoxu，liujiwomengengduodesikao，shiruhegenghaodexuanzeheshideruchangjiawei，yijigengkaopudechuchangshiji。
zuihou，nachugarnterchouxiangxinjishufazhanguochengdequxian，bofengdaibiaopaomo，bogudaibiaolengjing，womenxuyaolixingrenqingdangxiadebandaotiguzhizainali、weilaiyouhuiqunali。xiwangbenwenduigeweitouzizheyouqifa。
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