本文来自微信公众号：锦缎（ID：jinduan006）
armbinggouanduiyuzhongguonaizhiquanqiubandaotichanyederaodongrengzaifajiao。
duiyushifouyingfangxingzheichangshijijiaoyi，zhongguochanjingyejiecunzaibutongshengyin。genjumeitibaodao，9yue27ri，zai“disijiexinxianquanchanyefazhanluntan”shang，zhongguogongchengyuanyuanshiniguangnanzaitanjiyingweidaduiarmdebinggoushibiaoshi，“woxiangxinwomenshangwubukenenghuifoulezheigebinggou”。
lijiezheichangjiaoyideyiyi，xuyaoxiancongrenzhiarmgongsikaishi——chicichuzhong，benpianbaogaojiangduiarmjinxingshenduqidi：
armtongguojingjianzhilingjidechenggonghandongleyingteerdebazhudiwei，houfazhirenchengweiyidonghulianwangdezuidayingjia，bingjiyoukenengjixuzhudaowulianwangshidai，qiguquanyechengweikejidaguozhengduodejiaodian。
更为值得警醒的是，IP核（Intellectual Property core，知识产权核）作为lingyuzuizhongyaohuanjie，womenhaijibenchuyukongbai，xingyeheshichanggengduiipdezhongshichengdu，yuanyuanbugou。
yi、armdequanqiufengyun
yingguoarmgongsi，quanchengadvanced risc machines，zhongwenfanyichenganmou，shiyijiafeishengquanqiudebandaotiiptigongshang。
jiuzhongguogongzhongeryan，duiyuarmgongsidelejie，kenengbushiyinweihuisejianshendexinpianjishu，ershiyouyugezhong“huabianxinwen”。cong2016nianzhijin，armdengshangquanqiukejitoutiaodexinwenjiuduoda3ge：
2016年7月，趁着英国闹退欧的时间窗口，日本软银集团提出以243亿英镑（320亿美元）xianjinshougouarmgongsi。shougouwanchenghouarmtuishi，zheibijiaoyiyebeirenweishisunzhengyidashoubiyazhuwulianwangdedaibiaozuo。
2019nian，armyinquerenjiangzhongzhiyuhuaweideyewuhezuozaicidengshangtoutiao，haozaihuaweidangshiyongyouzuixindearmv8dejiagoucengjiyongjiushouquan，keyibaozhenghuaweizaicijichushangyanfaxinchanpin，duanqideyingxiangyouxian。
2020年9月，半导体AI第一股英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA）xuanbujihuayi400yimeiyuancongribenruanyinjituanshouzhongshougouarmdequanbuguquan。yejiedejieduweiruanyinjianghuodejiquedexianjin，eryingweidajiangpingjiearmdejishubuqiangcpudeduanban，congcizaiwulianwangshidaiyiqijuechen；ershichangzekenengzaoyubeilongduandemingyun。
zhanzairenleikejishudingduandearm，zuizaoyoupingguo、nuojiya、acorn、vlsi、technologydenggongsihezichuangli，houlaiyouyupingguoshoujixinpianshiyongarmjiagou，erzhujianzouxiangzhuliushichang。
armchenggongdizaiyidonghulianwangshidaizhanshengbukeyishideyingteer，wanquanlongduanleyidongzhongduandexinpianshejijiagou。
yinci，armziranchengweiquanqiuzhuyaokejiguojiadeguanzhujiaodian，meiciweiraoarmdeguquanfenzhengdouchengweixingyejuzuqingzhongdeshiqing，jiaozhufangbaokuoyingguo、meiguo、riben、zhongguoheouzhou。
er、armdeshangyemoshi
qidiarm，bixuyaoshouxianlijietadeshangyemoshi。
一句话来说，ARM做的是芯片设计领域的IP授权，可以简单理解成靠卖知识产权为生。danweileshenkelijieweishenmearmnengzhanzaixinpianxingyezhidian，womenraobukaiduijishudetaolun。
一切从处理器出发。
chuliqizuoweiyigeshebeidedanao，fuyushebeizhineng；womenshenruchuliqideneibu，yibanbaokuoneihe、diaoshixitong、waishe、cunchuqidengbujian，erqizhongneiheshichuliqizhongzuizhongyaodebufen。
jinyibuchaijie，neiheshiyouzhilingjiyuweijiagougouchengde；zhilingjishisuoyouzhilingdejihe，erzhilingguidinglechuliqikeyizhixingdecaozuo，zuoweiruanyingjiandejiekou，zhilingjiyushangcengcaozuoxitong、yingyongchengxudengjinmilianxi；weijiagoushiyongyuwanchengzhilingcaozuodeyingjiandianlusheji，shidechuliqizaishoudaozhilinghoukeyijinkenenggaoxiaodiwanchengyunsuan。
而ARM做的就是卖IP核的生意，即指令集+微架构。
tongguoyishangdejieshao，womenzhidaoipheshixinpianzhongzuinandebufen，zhibuguodajiabijiaoshuxideyingteermaideshizhenggexinpian，erarmzhimaiqizhongdehe，haishiyishouquanfangshijinxingde，shiyizhonggengjialinghuo、qingzichandemoshi。
由于ARM 的IP核是基于精简指令集（RISC），相对于英特尔X86 的复杂指令集（CISC），risckeyirangzhenggechuliqigengweijianhua，shihegonghaoxiao、chengbenmingan、renwuxiangduigudingdeyingyongchangjingzhong。
而这正好是智能手机为代表的移动终端的痛点，因此ARM把握住机会成为移动互联网最成功的半导体公司，而英特尔（NASDAQ:INTC）zezaoyude“shiqudeshinian”。
提到ARM，绕不开的是其“技术+生态”dejudayoushi。youyuzhilingjideshejishifenfuza，zaidiejiajiagoushejizheizhonggaojingjianhuanjie，daozhiarmshizhongbaochiduijingzhengduishoudedaijilingxian；erjishuzhiwai，armlingyigeyoushizaiyuqicongxinpiansheji、zhizaodaoxiaoshoutigonggeleizhichi，yichuangxinshili+shenduhezuodazaokehuzhanxing。
ARM的厉害之处，除了技术绝对的领先和巨大的生态粘性外，锦缎研究员认为其商业模式的创新，更是值得关注的重点。zheizhongzhishouquanmeiyoushiwushangpindeshangyemoshi，duizhishichanquanrengchuyuqibujieduandezhongguogongsilaishuo，xiandexiqiyounanyilijie。
armgongsibenshenbuzhizao、buxiaoshourenheshiwuxinpian，zhishizijishejiip，baokuozhilingjijiagou、weichuliqi、tuxinghexin、hulianjiagou，ranhoutongguoshouquanzheixieiphuoqushouru。
收取的费用又包括两部分： 针对IP授权的前期授权费，和根据每颗芯片售价按比例抽取版税（royalty）。youtongguosanzhongbutongcengjiquanxiandeshouquanmoshi，hekehujinxinghezuo。
erzheizhongshenqishangyemoshidedansheng，beihouyouzheshenkexingyefazhanguilv：
suizhezhinengzhongduanchanpinyuelaiyuefuzaduoyang，xinpianshejinandukuaisutisheng，shejichengbenzhishujishangsheng，weijiangdishejifengxianhechengben，xinpianshejigongsiyuelaiyueduodixunqiushiyongjingguoyanzhengdeip，yincixinpianshejichanyechaifenchuxinpianipchanye。
zheigejiufeichangxiangxinpianzhizaolingyu，yiqiandoushichuizhiyitihuadeidmmoshi，houlaitaijidianchuanglizhizuoxinpiandaigongbufendeshangyemoshi。suoyiwomenkeyirenweiarmjiushi“ruanban”detaijidian。
三、ARM的过去
armgongsideqianshenchengliyu1978nian，suanshidiyipichenglidebandaotigongsi；dangongsichengweijinridechuxing，zeshixuyaozhuisudao1990nianarmkonggudechengli，dangshizuiweizhongyaodegudongjiushipingguo，keweihanzhejinyaochichushen。
1993nian-2008nian，weigongsifeisuchengzhangde15nian，zaidigonghaoqianrushichuliqishichangkuaisuoxiangpimi。
zuibeidajiajinjinledaodejiushiarmchengweiyidonghulianwangshidaidexinpianipbazhu。zaios+cputixizhong，arm+androidtixizhanshenglepcshidaiwindows+inteltixi。
ARM 架构依靠苹果和dakaishichanghou，zhujianxingchengbilei，youyuduikaifazhechikaifangtaidu，erfeiyingteerdefengbitaidu，yincijihulongduanleyidongduanxinpianshichang。haobukuazhangdejiang，womenshiyongdemeiyitaizhinengshoujidezhinengdoushiarmfuyude。
buyongliejuyanhualiaoluandecaiwushuju，womenkeyiyongyizhangtulaishuomingarmdeniux，genjuarmzijigongbudeqiipshouquanxiangguandexinpianchuhuoshuju，jiezhidao2019nian，jiyuarmshouquandexinpianchuhuoliangchaoguo1660yike，zhanquanqiuzhenggexinpianshichangchuhuoliangdeshichangfenegaoda34%。
四、ARM的未来
ziran，dajiarongyixiangdaodeyigewentishi，suizhezhinengshoujimeinianchuhuoliangdadao14yibudepingjing，armdezengzhangshibushijiudaotoule？qishiburan。
正如前文所说，ARM是精简类类指令集（且指令集内容在持续升级更新），yinciqitianranshiyongyuhailiangwulianwangshebei，shoujizhishiqizhongdeyizhong。zheiyeshiweishenmeaidiyiguyingweidaguanlicengduishougouarmbiaoxianderucijidongdebenzhiyuanyin。
armdeguangkuowutai，womenkeyicongfuwuqixinpianzheigeshichanglaijianweizhizhu：dangqianquanqiufuwuqinianchuhuoliangchaoguo1100wantai，danfuwuqixinpianjibenbeix86longduan，pingjiejiejin100%delongduan，fuwuqichengweiyingteerdetikuanji，yingteermeinianyoujiejin50%delirunlaizifuwuqi。
womenkandaodajiadouzaishitutiaozhanyingteerdelongduandiwei：
huaweizai2019nian1yuefabushoukuanjiyuarmjiagoudefuwuqixinpian—kunpeng920；pingguojinqifabujiyuarmjiagoukaifamacxinpian；
muqian arm yijingmingqueleqizhenduishujuzhongxinde neoverse jiagoudiedaishengjicelve，meiyidaixingnengtishengdouzai 30%yishang，yuanyuanchaoguo x86 jiagou cpu meiyidaixingnengtishengdefudu，weilaiarm zaixingnengshangyux86 zhijiandechajujiangbuduansuoxiao。
服务器仅仅是开胃菜。根据ARM自己的判断，其未来面对的市场包括移动终端、ICT基础设施、汽车、嵌入式等场景。
arm zhengtikecanyudeshichang，yujidao2029nian，jiangdadao2320yimeiyuan，ermuqianshourubudao20yimeiyuandearm，litianhuabanhaiyouzhewujindekongjian。
erzheixianranbushichirenshuomeng，arm dejingjianzhilingjigonghaojiaoxiao、jiagebianyi、bingfachulixiaolvgao、shengjisudukuai，chushenjiudaizhewulianwangjiyin，yimuqianzai 5g wangluojichusheshishichangweili，armdeshizhanlvyijingdadao28%。
wu、ipshijueduidekabozihuanjie
zuijin，bandaotidezhizaoheshebeilingyudedaohenduoguanzhu，danshijishang，xinpianshejizhizaoyitiliangmianzhongderuanjianbufen，guoneiyiranshijiejinkongbai，zheigelingyuzhuyaoshizhidicengjiagoudeiphexinpianshejilingyudebixuyongdaodeedaruanjian，youqisuizhemeiguoyingweidashougouarmhou，zheigehuanjiebeikabozidekenengxingjiangmingxianshangsheng。
我们知道，目前市场主流的指令集是以 x86 为代表的复杂指令集（CISC）和以 ARM 为代表的简单指令集（RISC），基本处于完全的垄断的卖方市场，国内 CPU企业大多选择购买国外的架构授权，来设计芯片，哪怕最为领先的也是如此。
suizheguoneixinpianxingyetouzirechaobengfa，xinpianshejigongsidaliangchengli，dao2019nianguoneichuchuangxinpianshejigongsishuliangduoda1780jia，shi2015niandeliangbei，ruohexinipdequeshi，jianghuidaozhizheixieqiyeqingzezuizhongzhinengweibierenzuojiayi，zhongzesuishibeirenduangong。
kaolvdaowoguojuedabufenxinpiandouchuangjianzaiguowaigongsiiphuojiagoushouquandejichushang，tuijiniphexinpiandicengjiagouguochanhuashishichangdexuanzeyeshiguojiazhanlvedexuqiu。
liu、zhongguoqiyedepojufangxiang
fangxiang1：zhongshibingxuexiarmdechenggongjingyan
womenkandao，guoneidabufenxinpianshejigongsi，doushinagexiayouyingyonglingyubijiaorejiuquyongxiangnageshichang，erbuyuanyiqupengnankendedicenghexindongxi。
yixinpianlingyumuqianbubeidajiazhongshideiphexingyeweili，womentongguofupanarmdechengzhanglicheng，zhidaoarmjiushiyinweiyimenxinsizuojingjianzhilingji，dapoleyingteerfuzazhilingjideyijiaduda，erbushiqubizhongjiuqingxuanzemougexifendexinpianshejisaidao。
回到国内，诸如华为海思、中芯国际（HK:00981）、中微公司（SH:688012）这样啃硬骨头的企业太少，市场也因为稀缺给予这些标的（华为海思未上市）贵到离谱的估值。
suizhexinpiantouzirechaodelengque，neixiezhijianggushidegongsijiangshiquzhicheng。weilaigengzhideqidaideshileisiarmzheizhongzuodicengtupodeqiye，buguokenengdetouzijihuijiangjizhongzaiyijishichang。
dangran，youyuzhilingjijuyouleisiyucaozuoxitongyiyangdeziranlongduanxing，xiangzhijietiaozhanarmdediweijiwukeneng，jiuxiangqiangruarm，zaifazhandeqian30nian，yegenbenwufahandongyingteerzaifuwuqishichangdediwei。
但随着物联网时代的到来，指令集的需求将更趋于碎片化，因此IP核行业的集中度应该会更加分散，这反倒给了国内企业的创业机会。目前国内仅有一家科创板上市公司芯原股份（SH:688521）congshiipshouquanxiangguanyewu，nengfouchenggongtuweihaixugenzongguancha。
fangxiang2：ruhechayihuajingzheng
zhengruqianwensuoshu，armpingjiejishudaijilingxian，zhilingjidetianranshengtai，jiazhiweilaikenengxieshouyingweidazhihoudeqiangqianglianshou，guoneichuchuanggongsizaizhinengshouji、fuwuqiipheshangshixiantidaijibenmeiyoukeneng。
dansuizhewulianwangshidaidexinpianxuqiusuipianhuayijixinpianshejihuanjiefengongshenhua，guoneiqiyenengzuoderengranshichayihuajingzheng。
chayihuajingzhengtixianzailianggeshichang：
zaichuliqixinpianzhong，ipyingyongshuliangyuelaiyueduo。yishoujiweili，xianzaidesocdoushijiyuduozhongbutongipzuhejinxingshejide，suizhexianjinzhichengdeyanjin，dankesocxinpianshangkejichengdeipshuliangyedafuzengjia。
qitasuipianhuachangjingzhong，ipjiangbuduanyongxian。ipcongxinpianshejihuanjiefenlidequshirengzaichixutuijin，weilaicunchu、gpu、monileiipxuqiuyejiangzhujiantixianchulai。
congshujushangzhiguanganshou，genjuibstongji，xinpianipshichangjiangcong2018niande46yimeiyuanzengzhangzhi2027niande101yimeiyuan，qizhongchuliqiipshichangrengweizuidadanyishichang，yujizai2027niandadao63yimeiyuan；danqitaxifenshichangyeburongxiaoqu，yujidao2027nian，shumohunheipshichangyujidadao13yimeiyuan，shepinipshichangyudadao11yimeiyuan。
zheiyixiaozhongeryoujiqizhongyaodeshichang，shangweikandaotaiduozhongguoqiyedeyingzi，zheishiyinweimuqianguoneidabufenipgongsiweichuchuangxingqiye，shangweijinrugongzhongshiye。xinpianshejiipdexuqiushifenjinpo，taoyongguozubisaizhongchangtingdaodeyijuhua：liujizhongguoduideshijianbuduole。
本文来自微信公众号：锦缎（ID：jinduan006）