zuizhongyaodeshibuhuichengweixinwen。tamenfashengshiwangwangwusheng、weixiao,erxinwenbuguoshi“zhongdashijian”jinglilemanzhangzhefuhoudebaofashike。duiquanqiubandaotichanyelaishuo,shangshiji70niandai,jiushiyige“qiaoranwusheng”debiangekaiduan。
1973nian,disicizhongdongzhanzhengdaxiang,shiyouweijibaofa,quanqiujingjifanghuan,meiguogongyeshengchanxiahuale14%。bishideoumei,ziyoushichangjingjizhonghuozhudao,hayekezhuyikaishishengxing,meiguogebandaotigongsiyinglishousun,shoushichangsuoxian,fanghuanleduixinjishudetouzi。
ertongyangjingjishoucuoderiben,quekaiqileyichangnishifanchao。
如今,日本人总爱把“古き良き时代”(逝去的美好时代)一词挂在嘴边。当他们说起这个词时,脑海中有一幅共同回忆:二战后至上世纪80年代末泡沫经济破灭前的昭和后半期。
zaineiduantongbingkuailezhedesuiyue,ribenrenyouqiangliedemubiaogan:tamenjixuyichangzhanhoufeituzhongdefuxing。waibutiaojianyexiangduiyouli:1950nianchaoxianzhanzhengbaofahou,meiguokaishifuchiriben,ribenluxuyidijiayinjinlemeiguozuixindejingtiguanhejichengdianlujishu,daxialerihoufaqichongcidejichu。
dao70niandai,ribenyichuangjianle“guan、xue、yan”yitihuadechanyefazhanzhidu,caiqulemenshengzhuigande“juguomoshi”。
日本要举国重点攻克的领域,正是半导体。
1974年,石油危机后的第二年,日本政府就批准了“VLSI(超大规模集成电路)计划”,并在1976年联合日立、NEC、富士通、三菱、东芝五大公司筹集720亿日元(2.36亿美元),设立“VLSI技术研究所”,开启了一场蔚为壮观的、针对DARM存储器(动态随机存取存储器,目前最常见的系统内存)的大攻坚。
zhaoheyidaideribenmingqizhanxianchulekongqiandetuanjie,gongjiantixiyou6dashiyanshizucheng:
日立(第一研究室)fuzeyanzhidianzishusaomiaozhuangzhiheweisuotouyingziwaixianpuguangzhuangzhi;
富士通(第二研究室)fuzeyanzhikebianchicunjuxingdianzishusaomiaozhuangzhi;
东芝(第三研究室)fuzeyanzhiebsaomiaozhuangzhiyuzhibanfuyinzhuangzhi;
电气综合研究所(第四研究室)fuzeduiguijingticailiaojinxingyanjiu;
三菱电机(第五研究室)fuzekaifazhichengjishuyutouyingpuguangzhuangzhi;
NEC(第六研究室)fuzejinxingchanpinfengzhuangsheji、ceshi、pingguyanjiu。
duiyixieguanjianjishunandian,ribengegongsixiang《liulangdiqiu》liduidiqiufadongjidebaoheshijiuyuanyiyang,kaiqile“baoheshigongjian”:duogeshiyanshiqunqiershang,yigedanweidejingzhengbaozhengyanfachenggonglv。
VLSI成果惊人,计划开启第4年(1980),在惠普对16K DRAM内存的竞标中,日本的NEC、日立和富士通完胜美国的英特尔、德州仪器和莫斯泰克(当时美国存储器领域最主要的玩家),meiguozhiliangzuihaodedramdebuhegelvbiribenzuichadegongsihaigao6bei。
VLSI开始的第6年(1982),ribenchengweiquanqiuzuidadedramshengchanguo;
VLSI开始的第9年(1985),NEC登上全球半导体厂商榜首(按收入),bingzaizhihoulianxu7nianwenzuotoubajiaoyi;
tongnian,beiribenchangshangyazhedadeyingteerguanbile7zuogongchang,caiyuan7200ren——zheijia11nianqianshizhanlvda80%degongsicongciguanbilecunchuqiyewu。
buguo,zheibingbushigushidequanbu。
1970年,还悄悄发生了另一件小事:年初,一家日本计算器公司Busicom给了英特尔一个单子——做一款定制的设计和生产。
busicomzuichudefanganshiyitaoyou12kuaijichengdianluzuchengdexitong;eryingteergongchengshited hoffkanlehoujuedetaifuza,tachuangxinditichu,keyibajisuandanyuanjizhongdaoyimeixinpianshang,yijianhuadianluhejiangdishengchanchengben。
zhengshizaizheigexiangmuzhong,yingteerkaifachuleyu1971nianmianshideintel 4004,zheishishijiediyimeishangyehuadeweichuliqi,jicpu——dangjinbandaotichanyedeguiguanmingzhu。
Intel 4004最初的广告:“宣告一个新型集成电路时代”
busicomdedingdanqichubingbubeiyingteerzhongshi。
70niandai,yingteerhetadejingzhengduishouribenyiyang,bazhuyaojinglifangzaicunchuqishang,yingteerchuangshiren,shirenceoluobote·nuoyisishenzhishuoguo:
“cpushiyigeyouqudexiangfa,yingteeryounenglizuo,danshinaozihuailecaihuizhendequgan。maicpudehua,meitaidiannaozhinengmaiyikuai,womenxianzaizuoneicun,meitaidiannaonengmaijibaikuaixinpian。”
可谁能想到,偏偏这个不受待见的新业务,在之后力挽狂澜。
xinxingdecpuyewuruchulongmengshou,dailingyingteeryu1986nian、1993nian、2002nian、2010nianchuangxia4ciyejigaofeng——yingteerbujinqisihuisheng,haifazhanchengrihoudebandaotichangqingshu,chengjiulerujinmeiguozaibandaotichanyezhongdehuayuquan。
在转型CPU后,英特尔“王者风范”初现
回顾那段历史,无论是日本的“有心追赶”,还是美国的“无心插柳”,背后有一个共性:它们都是全球商贸合作、产业分工的受益者。
ruguomeiyouziyou、kaifangdemaoyiquanqiuhuahejishujiaoliu,ribennanyizaizuichuyinjinbandaotixianjinjishu,yejiumeiyourihouganchaodejichu;meiguoyenanyizaifuwuquanqiuchanyexuqiudeguochengzhong,yinchayangcuodizhaodaodayouqianjingdecpu“bianyuanshichang”。
bangeshijiguoqu,duijintiandezhongguoeryan,yigekenengdaozhibandaotichanyebiangedeguanjianshiqiyizaiyanqian。
zhanzai“zhongguoxin”deguaidianshang,liangzhongguandianzhenghuxiangzhengfeng:
一种颇有市场的声音是:另起炉灶,全产业链自己干。
在AMD等厂商被传停止向中国授权新一代x86架构IP(IP是芯片可复用的逻辑单元,是芯片设计最核心的部分)dengxinwenhou,jiuyoudaliangduizhongguo“chengbaobandaotiquanchanyelian”dexiaxiang:
而另一种声音则认为,以中国现有的技术实力,不能“狭隘地”自己闭门造车。
rurenzhengfeiriqianjieshoucaifangshisuoshuo:
“我们永远需要美国芯片。美国公司现在履行责任去华盛顿申请审批,如果审批通过,我们还是要购买它,或者卖给它(不光买也要卖,使它更先进)。yinci,womenbuhuipaichimeiguo,xiaaidiziwochengzhang,haishiyaogongtongchengzhang。”
shicongzuidicengkaishizhongjianyibian,haishijixuyongbaoquanqiufengong?
juezeshike,tongyangzuoweibandaotichanyehoufaguojiahediquderi、han、tai“jueqishi”,weizhongguodalutigonglenandedejiejian。
huigulidaihoulaijushangzhe,qigongxingshi:zunxunkejichanyefazhandeziranguilv,shun“shi”erwei——zheige“shi”,jiushizhanzaiquanqiufengong、jishuhezuodejichushang,minruizhuazhubingkaweixinyibozhouqihuoxinshichangjihui。
di1ciguaidian:chanyezhuanyi,ribenchaomei
zuoweizaimeiguozhiwai,zuixiancongbandaotishichangfendeyibeigengdeguojia,ribenshunshierweidefangshishi:
zaiwaibutiaojianyoulishi,buduanyinjinjishu,huodecunchuqilingyudejueduiyoushi。
chengzhezhanhoumeiguo“yuanrikangsu”deyouliwaibutiaojian,ribencong50niandaikaishiyidijiahuoquledaliangmeiguojishudeshouquan。
1953年,日本“东京通信工程株式会社”在晶体管专利被受理仅5年后,以900万日元(约2.5万美元)的低价从西屋电器引进了晶体管技术——要知道肖克利最初研发晶体管时,贝尔实验室在其上连续砸了2.23亿美元(用于1948年~1957年的连续研发和优化,其中美国军方承担了近40%的费用)。
jiezhujingtiguanjishu,dongjingtongxinzai1955nianfabulediyikuanxiuzhenshouyinjitr-55,gongsiyezhengshigengmingweisuoni。“suonidafa”youcifayangguangda,chengjiuyidaichuanqidianziqiye。
dangshi,quniuyueyuxiwuqianyuedesuonilianhechuangshirenshengtianzhaofuzaiguanglediguodasha、bulukelindaqiaohou,cengxiangtongxingyourengantan:“ribenhezheiyangdeguojiajiaozhan,zhenshilumangya!”
不过20年后,日本就在半导体存储器领域和美国打了一场惊人的大战,这得益于日本在60年代引进的另一项技术:集成电路。
rihouchengweiribenbandaotibazhudenec,zai1962niancongmeiguoxiantongbandaotigongsigoumailepingmianguangkeshengchangongyi,jiejuelejichengdianluzhizaoshengchandewenti,xiaoguoliganjianying:1961nian,necjichengdianludechanliangzhiyou50kuai,1962nianbaozengzhi1.18wankuai,1965niandadaole5wankuai。
tongyishiqi,riliyurca,tongyongdianqihedongzhifenfenqiandinglejishuzhuanrangxieyi;suonihedezhouyiqiyezailijing4niancuoshanghou,yu1968nianzairibenchenglilegezizhangu50%dehezigongsi。
ribencaiqule“yishichanghuanjishu”taolu,chenglihezigongsidetiaojianjiushidezhouyiqibixuzai3nianneixiangribengongbuyuiczhichengxiangguandezhuanli。
yushi,waiyou“xiangxianjinxuexi”deminruizhuashou,neiyoujuguotizhixiade“vlsijihua”,zheiyixiliejucuo,daxialeribenzai70niandaimaitoukugan、80niandaiyimingjingrendejichu。
cong1980niandao1984nian,ribenbandaotiduimeiguodechukouecongbudao90yiriyuan,zengzhi400duoyiriyuan,douqiaodeshangyangquxianzhendongshijie。
1985年的出口量下降与美国启动针对日本存储器的“反倾销诉讼”有关
youci,ribenchenglebandaotishishangdediyici“chanyezhuanyi”deyingjia,duodelecunchuqishichangdelongduandiwei;ermeiguodingjiangongsiruyingteer,zezhuanxianglejishubileigenggaodecpulingyu。
不过,日本半导体的辉煌是短暂的。
90年代,日本半导体产业开始节节败退——韩国成了新一代存储器霸主:1992年,jiangnecjixiadramshijiediyidebaozuo;2000nianqianhou,fushitonghedongzhixianhouxuanbucongdramshichangtuichu。
zheibeihouyouzhuduoyuanyin:zaiwai,meiguoxiangrujinduifuzhongguoyiyang,duiribenshuaqile“maoyizhan”:tongguo1985niandefanqingxiaosusong、1986niande《meiribandaotixieyi》、1991niande《rimeibandaotixieyi》,quanmiandayaribenbandaotichanye;zainei,ribenzai80niandaimodadaopaomojingjidingfeng,zibendaliangliuxiangfangdichan,jianshaoleduijishulingyudetouzi。
而另一个常被忽略的关键原因是,日本错失了一个萌芽于上世纪80年代的半导体产业新趋势。
zheiyihuihe,taiwanhehanguoquezhuazhulejihui。
di2、3ciguaidian:fengongliebian,han、tainixi
taiwanhehanguonixidegushi,yuanziyichangshejimei、ou、yaduoguodebandaotixingye“fengongliebian”。
一切的开端仍是不起眼的小事:诞生于欧亚大陆两端的两家小公司——台积电和ARM。
chengliyu1987niandetaijidiankaichuanglefoundrymoshi,jizhijinxingxinpianshengchanzhizaodexinpiandaigongchang。er3nianhou,danshengyuyingguojianqiaoyizuogucanglidearm,youkaichuanglelingyizhongquanxindeshangyemoshi:ipshouquan。
foundryheipshouquandechuxian,shiouranzhongdebiran。
congjichengdianlushangyonghuade60niandaikaishi,bandaotichanyejiuxiangxibaoshengzhangyiyangjinglizhe“liebian”——congchuizhijichengdaochuizhifengong,fengongyuelaiyuexi,gehuanjieyuelaiyuezhuanye。
diyicizhongyaoliebianfashengzai70niandai:bandaotiheruanjianxingyecongjisuanjizhongfenhuachulai。
xingyedechushizhuangtai,shi“yigegongsizaosuoyou”degaoduchuizhijicheng。biruibmlansejuren,jizijizaojisuanjiyongdexinpian,haizuocaozuoxitong、ruanjian,tongshishengchanjisuanjizhongduan。
zai1961niandiibmqidongde“system-360”xiangmuzhong,pingyijizhili,ibmjiugongkelezhilingji、jichengdianlu、kejianrongcaozuoxitong、shujukudengruanyingjianduodaonanguan,huodele300duoxiangzhuanli。
而到70年代,随着技术进一步普及、市场对软件需求的增加,软件开始成为单独的行业;微软(1975年成立)、甲骨文(1977年成立)等公司陆续出现。
这同时催生了半导体从计算机中分化,产生了一批主要做芯片硬件(芯片设计、制造、封装测试)的公司,英特尔(1968年成立)是其中代表。
在1970年代开始萌发的PC(个人电脑)shichangshang,yingteeryuweiruande“wintellianmeng”qiaoranshengzhang,qianzhezuojisuanjicpu,houzhezuowindowscaozuoxitong,ruanyingpeihe,zhujianhuodelelongduandiwei。
这又带来半导体产业的一个重要生态现象:指令集壁垒。
有种说法是:三流公司做产品,二流公司做品牌,一流公司做标准。zhilingji,jiushixinpianyingjianhedicengruanjiandaimazhijiangoutongdeyitao“biaozhun”。
jiuxiangzhiyouhuiguniangnengchuanshangshuijingxie:xiangyingderuanjiancaozuoxitong,tongguoxiangyingdezhilingjipaozaixiangyingdexinpianshang,cainengdadaozuijiaxiaoguo。yincizhilingjihecaozuoxitongzhijiannengxingchengqitawanjiananyigongpodeshengtailianhe。
suipclangchaojueqideyingteer,shidiyigechuangjianqile“zhilingjibilei”degongsi。
PC时代之前的小型机主要在数据中心处理专业的计算工作,市场分散,操作系统常常是各做各的(或在开源系统上做优化),jingshuibufanheshui;zhilingjiyegeziweiying,ibmyoupower,sunyousparc,decyoualphadengdeng。
suizhepcshidaidaolai,dalianggetigoutong、xiezuodexuqiukaishiyongxian,caozuoxitongshichangkaishixiangtoubuwanjiajizhong,windowszuizhongtuchuzhongwei,zuoshangle“tiewangzuo”,yuzhibangdingdeyingteerx86zhilingjiyegenzhequde“zhilingjibaquan”。
2000nianzhihou,yingteeryoujinyibuliyongzijizaipcshichangchuhuoliangda、chengbendideyoushi,xianggenggaoduande“xiaoxingjifuwuqishichang”jinjun,yijiagezhandabailepower、sparc、alphadenglaopaizhilingji,gaixielezhenggefuwuqishichangdeshengtaijichu。
对x86指令集这一电子产业基础性标准的掌控,也让英特尔多年来屹立不倒,连续25年(1991-2017)dengdingquanqiubandaotidiyichangshangdebaozuo。
zheibianshixingyediyiciliebianshi,xinyidai“ruanyingshuangda”liaodaolaoyidaichuizhixingjurendegushi。
danzaixinpianzhizaoneibu,yingteerrengshiyijia“chuizhijicheng”degongsi:zijizuozhilingji,zijizaizhilingjishangshejiiphe,zijizuoshengchanzhizao。
zheijiujidiercifengongliebianchuangzaolekongjian:shangshiji90niandaizhihou,taijidiandefoundrymoshi+armdeipshouquanmoshixingqi,dasuileyingteerde“chuizhijicheng”。bandaotichanyeshangyoudeipyanfa、shejihexiayoudezhizaogezifenhuachengledandudexingye。
armnengchanshengipshouquandeqisimiaoxiang,yedeganxieyingteer。
1981nian,armdeqianshenacornjisuanjigongsixiangshengchanyikuangongyingguozhongxiaoxuexiaoshiyongdediannao,xiangyingteerqiuzhu,xiwangnenggoumai80286chuliqideshejiziliaoheyangpin,danyingteermeidalita。
Acorn于是基于当时学界提出的RISC精简指令集概念(英特尔x86使用的是CISC复杂指令集),yanfaleyike32wei、6m hz,shiyongziyanzhilingjidechuliqi,mingmingweiarm。
到1990年,已更名为ARM的新公司开始专注于半导体业务。但英特尔等厂商已占据了大量市场,直接卖芯片的ARM生意惨淡,被迫踏上一条新路:自己不生产芯片,只将IP核授权给其他公司。
ouyadaludelingyiduan,taijidiandechenggongzedeyiyuqichuangshirenzhangzhongmouzaidezhouyiqijileidebandaotigongchangjianzaoyuguanlijingyan。
yukaitoutidaoderibentongguoyinjinjishufazhancunchuqi;yingteeryinweiwanchengribenkehudingdanyinchayangcuokaiqicpushichangyiyang,quanqiujishu、rencaideziyouliudong,zaicicujinlezhenggechanyedejinhua。
进化是不可逆的。
Foundry和IP授权模式的诞生,永久地改变了世界半导体产业的版图——它大大降低了半导体产业的准入门槛。
zaigaoduchuizhijichengde60niandai,ibmweikaifasystem-360,zai3nianduoshijianlitourule52.5yimeiyuan,kaizhishenzhichaoguozaochuyuanzidandemanhadunjihua。shilixionghouruibmyechadianbeizheigexiangmugaodezijinlianchadianduanlie,qitaxiaochangjiagengshibeiwanquandangzailedianzichanyedemenwai。
随着垂直分工的开始,ARM和台积电承担了产业链一头一尾的工作,中间的“芯片设计”环节便逐渐发展成一个独立赛道——不做生产,无需重资建厂或做底层研发的Fabless厂商(Fabless的字面意思就是“无工厂”)。
muqianquanqiupaimingtop 20debandaotichangshangzhong,jinyibanshi1990nianhouchenglidefablessxingui:
1985年成立的高通(美国)(高通是无线电通信技术研发商,1994年开始销售芯片);
1991年成立的博通(美国);
1993年成立的英伟达(美国);
1995年成立的美满(美国);
1995年成立的联发科(台湾);
1999年独立的英飞凌(德国)(前身是西门子半导体部门);
2002年成立的瑞萨电子(日本)(NEC和瑞萨科技的合资公司)。
zheijinyibujixingyedailailianggebianhua:
yifangmian,gengduoqingzichanwanjiadeyongru,shishichangjingzhenggengchongfen,cujinlequanqiubandaotichanyedejinhua;
lingyifangmian,zheixiexingongsiduoshiarmhetaijidiandekehu。armyikaifangdeipshouquanmoshiyizaiyidongduancpushichangzhanbichao95%,yufuwuqiduancpudebazhuyingteeryililiangtou,gouchengledangxiaquanqiubandaotichanzuidicengdeliangdabiaozhun。
zheichangxindefengongliebian,zhongyuranggaoduandecpulingyubuzaishi“meiguorenzijideyouxi”,taiwanhehanguoshunyingxindefengongqushi,chenglequanqiubandaotichanyedexingaodi。
zaizhizaohuanjie,taiwanyikaotaijidianlaolaobawolehuayuquan。
zicongzai1989niangaodingleyingteerdebeishuhedingdanhou,zheijiazuichulianmuzidouhenjiannandetaiwan“xiaogongsi”kuaisuchengzhang,meinianyingshouzengzhanglvdoubaochizai50%zhi100%zhijian。
jinnianlai,taijidiandegongyishuipingyiganchaolechuantongchuizhichangshangyingteer、ibm,zhanjulechaoguo50%deshichangfene,zaizuixinde5nmzhichengshanglingxianquanqiu。
zaicpu、mcudengzhukongxinpianshejihuanjie,lingyijiataiwanqiyelianfakecong2003niankaishigoumaiarm ip,jinrushoujihepingbanxinpianshichang,bingzai2000nianzhihouchengweiyazhouzuidadefablesschangshang。
hanguoyezhuazhulefengongliebiandejihui。
qibandaotibiaoganqiyesanxing,cong2000niankaishijiutongguogoumaichengshuip,zaiyuanbendeqiangxiangcunchuqizhiwai,kaipilecpudexinzengzhangdian。
2007nian,diyidaiiphonedexinpianjiushisanxinghearmfengonghezuodechanwu——sanxingzaiarm 11 ipshangkaifades5l8900xinpian。
sheinengxiangdao,iphonezheigebubeikanhaode“bianyuanchanpin”,yishouchengqilezhinengshoujishidai,zaituichuhoudiernian,chuangxialechaoguo700%dexiaoliangzengzhang。
乘此东风,三星巩固了其在智能手机芯片市场的地位;随后又在2010年推出蜂鸟系列CPU(后改名Exynos),diandingleqizaiandroidshebeizhenyingdelongtouxinpiantigongshangdiwei。
qishi,zhongguodaludexuduogongsiyezaibuzhibujuezhongganshanglexingyefengongliebiandedashi。
youyu“ipshouquan+fabless+foundry”moshijiangdileshoujixinpianzhengtichengben,guochanshoujichangshang,ruhuawei、xiaomi、vivo、oppozai2010houjueqi,chenglezheichangmianyanjin30niandexinfengongchaoliudeshouyizhe。
这就是全球产业链的神奇所在:牵一发而动全身——一些起初看来微小的变化,经时间陈酿,可能孕育巨大的机会。
danshi,“shi”nengzhurenyenengshangren:ruguoniyaohetaduizhegandehua。
zaihanguo、taiwanjueqide90niandai,ribenbandaotichanyexunsubailuo,yuanyinzhiyijiushicuoguolechuizhifengongliebiandequshi。
dangshi,ribendeyoushixiangcunchuqizaomeiguojuji,bingbeihanguochenxuerru;danzaicpulingyu,ribenbenkeyuipshouquanshang、jingyuandaigongchanghezuo,fazhanfablessyewu,zaiyici“houfazhiren”。
danribengongsizai90niandaihaiqiaobuqijishuxiangduiluohoudetaiwandaigongchang;lingyifangmian,zhengruriju《banzezhishu》suozhanshide,ribendeshiyerongziyilaiyuyinxingdaikuan,yinxingzaipingdingzichanshi,qingxiangyugongchang、shengchanxianzheixiekandejian、modezhededongxi,dandudexinpianshejigongsibuhaozhaoqian。
yushi,baochizhechuizhijichengxingtaideribenbandaotiqiyejiyaoyanfa,youyaoshengchan,haiyaoweihu、gengxinshebei,touzida,zhouqizhang,jishugengdieluoyufablesszhihou。
zaifaxianshichangxinjihuishang,ziyou、linghuodexiaogongsiwangwanggengyouqianli,tuanjiedagongsiyiqigongjianderibenmoshicikefanerchengleduanban。
zaimeiguodedajihefablessmoshideshuangzhongjiyaxia,ribenbandaotidiudiaolejiuyoushi,cuoshilexindezengzhangjiyu,zhiliuxia“shiqu30nian”detanwan。
huikanzheiduanlishi,chongjichuizhijichengdeliangdajiaose——taijidianhearmdoudanshengzaifudixiaxiaodedaoyu,zheiyouqibiranxing:
zhengyinneibushichangyouxian、diliweizhibianyuan,taijidianhearmcai“guangjiaobupachuanxie”,gezifaminglequanxinshangyemoshi。jiechengdanxindefengongjiaosezhiji,tamenjishixianlezishendeshangyechenggong,yegongtongcuchengleyigegengkaifangdequanqiubandaotichanyeshengtai。
wanyi,2019niandebandaotirengshiyigebeimeiguoshaoshujutoubachidechanye,neizhongguohuimianlinshenmejumian?
想都不敢想。
nanbeishutu:dalubandaotitansuo
zaiipshouquan+fabless+foundryfengongdansheng10nianhoude2000nianqianhou,zhongguodaluchenglejiarubandaotichanyeshangyejingzhengdezuixinwanjia,xuxiezhezheibuquanqiufengongdaxi。
yurujinyiyang,neiyeshiyigeduoshizhiqiu:1996niandetaihaiweiji,1999niandenansilafudashiguanbeizhashijian,2001niandezhongmeinanhaizhuangjishijian,rangzhongmeiguanxidiezhibingdian。
chuandaodaobandaotichanye,chuxianleduiquanqiufengongtaidujiongyideliangpaishijian。
yibianshi“quanbuzijilai”debeipai。
tamenduotuotaiyuxueshujigou,zai2000nianqianhoujizhongchuxian:
1999年,方舟成立(倪光南院士与市场化公司方舟科技的合作);
2002年,北福斯志成立(2001年北大众志对应的实验室MPRC成立);
2008年,龙芯成立(课题组成立于2001年,2008年公司成立)。
lingyipaishijiediqidenanpai,youwanquanyishichangweidaoxiangdeminyingqiyezucheng,qichengligaofengqitongyangzai2000nianzhihou:
2001年,展讯成立(2013年紫光收购展讯,2014年又收购锐迪科,2016年集成为紫光展锐);
2001nian,julichengli;
2001年,成立;
2004nian,lanqikejichengli;
2004年,海思成立(华为子公司);
2004nian,zhaoyichuangxinchengli;
2007年,成立。
在发展路径上,北派多是一套人马,两块牌子,双重目标:既要完成国家重点任务——在当时中美不睦的大环境下,攻克自主可控的CPU,摆脱对美国的依赖;也要通过成立公司,探索市场化。
zheijiubunanlijie,longxin、zhongzhidouxuanzeleyitiaozuixiongxiandelu:congzuishangyoudezhilingjikaishi,yicengcengwangxiayouzuo,goujianziyoutixi,tiaozhancpugaodi,shitutongpowintellianmeng,buzuodicengjishuyouqiuyurende“maibanxinpiangongsi”。
rubeifusizhi,xianhouzai1999nianzuolewanquanzizhuyanfadezhilingjijijiagouunicore,youzai2003nianzuochulebaohanunicorehedepkunity-863 cpu;longxinchen2008nianjinrongweiji,dijiahuodelemipszhilingjishouquan,bingduiqijinxingledaliangkuozhan,fazhanchulezijidezhilingjiloongisa;fangzhouzetongguozuoqianrushideriscleixingzhilingji,raokaix86delongduan,zai2001niantuichulezhongguodiyikuanzizhushejiyanfadeqianrushixinpian,fangzhou1hao。
nanpaidegongtongdianzeshiwanquanrongruquanqiufengong,congzuimeijishumenjian、zuixiayoudemaixianchengxinpianzuoqi,yicengcengwangshangyouhediceng“huiyou”。
20niandanzhiyihuijian,zanqiebubiaopeiyangrencai、zhichijungongdengteshulingyudejinzhan,jinzaichanyehuashang,liangzhongxiangxiangerxingdelujing,chanshenglejieranbutongdejieguo:
架构决定生态,无论是完全自主研发还是基于MIPS指令集扩展,绕开了x86的北派——龙芯、方舟、北大众志,成功做出了自己的芯片,却补不齐生态短板。
zhengruliangningzaiqunianzhongxingshijianhouguangweiliuchuande《yiduanguanyuguochanxinpianhecaozuoxitongdewangshi》zhongsuoxie:
对话永远是这样:
wo:“womenyouzizhuzhishichanquandecpu,womenhaiyousocdenengli,zheiyang,womenkeyijidadibaniyaodegongnengjicheng,guisikeyigenglinghuodidingyinichanpindexingnenghetiji。”
duifang:“aiya,duibuqi。womenmeiyounenglijiyuyikuaicpukaifachanpinyuanxing。doushiintelhuozhetadedesign housezuohaogongban,womenxuanyige,ranhoujiyutamendegongbanwomenzaikaifa。”
womenzheicaifaxian,yingteerbushizuochulecpu,ershipeiyuleyigejiyucpudekaifashengtaixitong。
dibuguowintellianmeng,beipaishenxianyushichanghuanitan。
tamencengtongguozijizuobangongruanjian、shenzhipeitaoyingjianlaichuangchuyitiaolu:
如众志推出了与PKUNITY-863 CPU适配的操作系统(基于开源的Linux),并进一步推出了使用PKUNITY-863的“网络计算机”(要连网才能使用各种应用的电脑,起初具有成本优势,但很快在价格上被更强大的产品碾压);方舟也做了可更好适配自有芯片的永中Office套件和NC瘦客户机(一种网络计算机)。
zheijihuhuidaole60niandai,ibmde“gaoduchuizhijichengmoshi”。
danibmzheimeganshi,weiruan、yingteerhaibuzhidaozainaer;zhongguobandaotibeipaizheimeganshi,jisuanjiruanyingjianlingyuyishijutoulinli。
jieguobunanxiangxiang:zheixieyitihuadechanpinzaihaoyong、bianyidewintellianmengmianqianbingwuzhanli。
zuizhong,fangzhoucputingzhikaifa,yongzhongpochanqingsuan;longxinhezhongzhizezhuyaozaijungongdenglingyuhuodezhengfudingdan,danjincongshourushang,zaidalufanweineiyenanyijishentoubuchangshang。
ernanpaidedafaquehen“jiediqi”——congdiduandaogaoduan,congjiandandaofuzazhujianyanjin,xingchengleduocengcideshangyejinzhan。
nanpaizhongdediyizhongshi,jingenshichangxuqiu,shenmezhuanqianzuoshenme。
biruzaimp3chanpindaxingqidaode2005nianqianhou,zhuhaijulipingjiemp3xinpian(duomeitiyingyinzhukongxinpian)huodelekuaisufazhan,zai2005nianchuhuo7000duowanke,xiaoshoushourutupo1.5yimeiyuan,bingzaidiernianchengweiquanqiuxiaoliangzuidademp3xinpianchangshang。
2010年前后,瑞芯微和全志又后来居上,进军平板市场,早早开始购买ARM IP研发平板CPU,成了当时南派中的新一代佼佼者,客户也从国内厂商逐渐变为惠普和谷歌(chromebook)。
haisizeshuyulingyilei:zhuyaofuwuyuhuaweidezhanlvemubiao,zuoyutongxinjinmixiangguandejiaohuanjixinpian、jidaixinpian;bingzaijinniansuihuaweishoujiyewudefazhan,kaishitiaozhangaomenjiandeyidongduancpu,chenglejin7nianzhongguoxinpianshejigongsideshouruguanjun。
zuijin10nianlai,paizaizhongguofablesschangshangqian10deduoweinanpaichangshang。
nanbeishutu、jieguojiongyi,shiyinweiduiquanqiufengongdebutongtaidu;taiduchayiyuanyu,shifouqingxingdichengrenxingyefazhandeguilvhexianzhuang:
jingguo50duoniandejilei、fazhan,zheimeduogongsideshengsiqifu,bandaotichanyeyixingchenglezhuanye、xizhidefengong,yihuankouyihuandehezuotixi,heduanqineinanyidapodeshengtaipeihe。
pcshidaishiwintellianmenghengsaotianxia;yidongshidaizexingchenglearm+ios、androidduixiayouxinpianhezhongduanchangshangdeqiangdahuayuquan。
zhongguozuoweibandaotijishuheshangyehuashangdehoufaxuanshou,youqishizaijishumenjianzuigaodecpulingyu,jishiguoneishichangpangda,yehennanzichengyipai,quyuwumeijialian、shengtaichengshudeguojixinpianchanpinyingpengying。
在“甲子光年”去年关于国产自主CPU之一北福斯志的文章《北大理科一号楼芯片往事》中,提到了中国半导体“不融入全球分工”的一种可能性:让国家给一片“小市场”。
zheizhongguandianrenwei,zhengfuyingzaiheiansenlinliweigelibaqiang,goujianyigexiaosenlin,“baguowaixinpiandangyidang”;rangzhenzhengzizhukekongdezhongguocpuzaixiaosenlinlianshichangguizejingzheng,zairangshengchuzhequheheiansenlinlideguowaichanpinjingzheng。
danjishishizaiguojiakanqilaikeyikongzhidezhengfubangong、guoqibangong、jiaoyulingyu,dangshimianshangdecpubiguochancpuxingnenggenggao、jiagegengdishi,rangbumenxishengliyizhichiguochan,rengyoujudazuli。
ru2014nianyunjisuanxingqihou,zhongzhicengtuozhan“zhuomianyun”yewu,bingnadaoleguojiadianwangdeyizhangdadan,beijingshidangshiguojiadianwangrenweiyonggerendiannaobangongbuanquan,xialingbuzaicaigoudiannao,ergaiyongzhuomianyun,youfuwuqiduantongyiguanli。
shangyouzhengce,xiayouduice。youyuzhuomianyunduiyuleruanjianhebufenwaisheyingjianzhichibuhao,jicengbangongrenyuanhaishibuyuanyibian——burangmaixindiannaole,youdefengongsijiuquzudiannao,zheicihezuoyebulelezhi。
靠划出一片“温室市场”的做法,不一定能扶起产业。zheijiuxiangrenleimofangshengwuquanjianzaode“shengwuquan2hao”——tashiyigezhuanglideshiyan,quezhongjiushiyichangcanliedeshibai。
pufuxiangqian:haisideziyanzhilu
zaizichengyitide“shengwuquan2hao”zhiwai,cong2005niandao2018nian,jinpaozaishichanghuajingzhenglidenanpaixinpiangongsi,jinglilejiliedepaiweizhongxi,gegongsibeibipozhexianggenggaoduan、gengyoumenjiandechanpin、gengxindexifenshichanghuogengshenchengdudezizhuyanfayanjin。
其中,近年来表现最亮眼的tigongleyizhong“sanbuzou,yicishangtaijie”delujingshifan。
这种依靠国际分工的已有成果,“站在巨人肩膀”上缓慢“匍匐”的战略,再次证明了一个产业发展心法:慢即是快。
第一阶段是1991年~2004年海思成立前。华为有两手做法:
在不需要IP和通用指令集的专用芯片,如交换机用的ASIC(专用集成电路)shang,huaweicaiqulemaoxiandeziyan。
dangshi,huaweichuanglibudao5nian,zheijiashenzhidaomaiguojianfeiyaodegongsizuihoubayewuwendingdaoledailipbxjiaohuanjishang。zaikandaolezhongguoshichangduijiaohuanjidewangshengxuqiuhedangshidehunluanbiaozhunhou,renzhengfeikaishizuzhiziyantuandui,qizhongyigehuanjiejiushiyanfajiaohuanjiyongdeasic。
renzhengfeishuodonglezidongkongzhixiyanjiushengxuwenwei,conggebidegangziqiyetiaocaodaoledangshiqiantuweibudehuawei。xusuihoudailingtuanduizai1991nianhe1993nianyanfalesd502hesd509;zheixiexinpianshihuaweiziyandejiaohuanjibiqitashiyongtongyongxinpiandechangshanggengbianyi,huaweiyeyoucicongshangmaogongsizhuanxingkejigongsi。
weilexinpianyanfadezijin,renzhengfeidangshishenzhijielegaolidai。
tacengzhanzailiuloubangongshichuangqian,duiyanfatuanduishuo:“xinchanpinyanfabuchenggong,nimenkeyihuangegongzuo,wozhinengcongzheilitiaoxiaqule!”
erduiyuxuyaoyituoyuzhilingjidecpu、mcudengxinpian,huaweicaiqulezhijiegoumaixianchengxinpiandefangshi,ruzaishujuzhongxinzhongshiyongledaliangdeyingteer cpu。
第二阶段是2004年~2018年,华为海思成立,仍然分两手:
yibianjixuyouxianyanfayuhuaweidetongxinyewumiqiexiangguandezhuanyongxinpianasic;yibiancongzhijiegoumaixianchengxinpian,jinhuadaolegoumaiip,jinjunyidongduancpushichang。
zuichudechangshishi2006niankaishiyanfadek3v1qianrushicpu,gaicpujiyuarm-11 ip,beijichengyuhaisigongsideshoukuanshoujizhuxinpianhi3611shang,danyouyuxingnengwenti,k3v1zuizhongmeiyoushichanghua;cihou,haisibiguanliangnian,tuichulek3v2chuliqi,bingqiediyicizaizijiaqijianjixingd2、p2、mate 1、p6dengshoujishangshiyong。
dao2014nian,huaweiyoutuichuleqilin920xinpian,bingzaihuaweirongyao6shangshiyong。zheikuanxinpianjichengle8gearmhehehuaweiziyandejidaixinpianbalong,huodeledangshide“paofenwang”zhicheng。
zheishihaisichenglidedi8nian,huaweikaishiziyanxinpiandedi23nian,huaweihaisizhongyuzaiyidongzhongduancpuxinpianshangyoulekanqigaotong、sanxingdengyixianchangshangdeshili。
第三阶段是2018年至今,海思从购买现成的IP又进化到购买ARM指令集架构,开始基于架构进行更深度的自研:
zheikuanshenduziyandechanpinshijinnian1yuefabudefuwuqiduancputaishanxinpian,tajiangbufentidaiyingteerdefuwuqixinpian,dadajiangdihuaweiyunyingshujuzhongxindechengben。
zhici,haisichenglezhongguodiyijiachenggongjiyuarmjiagouziyanbingliangchanlecpuhedechangjia。
qishi,zheisanbuzoujiushilaolaoshishishunyingchanyefazhanguilv,zouri、han、taidehoufazhemendouzouguodelu:jijiliyongquanqiufengongtixi,yinjinyiyoujishuchengguo,wenzhawenda,zhubucongxiayouqierushangyou,congqiancengziyanzouxiangshenduziyan。
zheizhongshunshifazhandeguanjianshichengrenyixiaxianzhuang:
以中国半导体产业目前的技术实力,无法完全抛开全球分工体系;即使大陆最先进的厂商海思,在移动端CPU上还是没有自己做到最底层的指令集;同时,还得依赖美国的EDA工具(EDA是芯片设计中的后端实现工具,它能把芯片设计翻译成工厂能看懂的制造流程)。
zheijiushiweishenme,zaibbcbaochuarmneibushoumeiguoyingxiang,kenengbuzaiyuhuaweijinxingxinyidaiarmjiagouhezuoshi,zhongguobandaotichanyeyishiyulunfeiteng。
danshijishang,beiguanqingxubeihouyoulianggeshaoweirendaodeyoulixinxi:
shouxian,huaweiyigoumailearmv8jiagoudeyongjiushouquan,jixuyongzhemeiwenti。
qici,“jiaziguangnian”congjiejinarmderenshidedaodexiaoxishi,meiguodejinlingzhiduizaimeiyanfazhanbichao25%dearmjishuhechanpinyoushizhiyueshu;erarmsuoyoudezhilingjihexiniphedabufenneiheipdoushuyu“yingguohuoouzhouyuanchanjishu”,shoumeiguojinlingyingxiangjiaoxiao。
armchuangshirenhermann hauserjinqijieshouyingguomeiticaifangshiyeshuo:
“fengshahuaweizuizhonghuiduiarm、gugeshenzhimeiguogongyedailaiyanzhongshanghai;yixieouzhougongsiyizaikaolvjiangmeiguoipchanquanpaichuzaiwai,huoyumeiguozigongsi、bangongshizuoyidingchengdudeqiege,yimianrihouzijideshengyishoumeiguojinlingboji。”
ruguozheizhongtaishijinyibufazhan,telangpujiuzhendeshizaibanqishitouzazijidejiao——meiguokenenghuishiqubufendeouzhoujishuziyuan,zheiduijibainianlaiyihuijurencaihejishuweiaodemeiguolaishuo,shidongyaogenjidedaji。
zuoweizheiyilunmocadetiaoqifang,meiguojizhongguo,yejizijihequanqiuzaoleyigexinde“shi”,tayebudebushouxin“shi”defanshi。
第4次拐点:顺势而为
mingshi、qudao、youshu,shikecheng。congjinjishiniandechenfugushilaikan,“shi”bianshixingyefazhandekeguanguilv。
rujindebandaotichanye,mianlindisiciguaidian。sange“shi”baizailishidefenchakoumianqian:
长期的势是全球分工和技术交流趋势难以阻挡。
daojintian,quanqiuyemeiyourenheyigeguojiakeyishixianbandaotiquanchanyeliandezijizizu。
mianduibandaotizheizhongriyifuza、jingmidexingye,huijuquanqiurencai、zibenhejishudechuizhifengonggengyouliyuxingyedezhengtifazhan。
lingyifangmian,canyubandaotiqijudegeguohediquyizaidafengongtixizhongzhaodaolegezidelishensuozhang:
meiguobandaotichanyeqiangzaizhengtishili:
youyingteer、gaotong、yingweida、amddengdingjianxinpiansheji、zhizaochangshang,yingteer、amdhaizhangwox86zhilingji
youweiruan、pingguo、gugedengcaozuoxitongshengtaihuoban
youcadence、synopsys、mentor 3dazhuliuedagongjuchangshang
英国强于架构:
youchux86zhiwai,zhanjulingwaibanbijiangshandearmjiagou
台湾强于代工:
taijidianzaixianjingongyishangyilingxianshijie
hanguoqiangyucunchuhexianshi:
sanxinghelgzai90niandaizhihouxunsujueqi
日本强于材料:
xinyue、sumco、zhuyoudianmudengriqilongduanquanqiu52%debandaoticailiaoshichang
欧洲强于设备:
helanasmlgongsilongduanquanqiuguangkejishebei
erzhongguodalushishijiezuidadexinpianjinkoudi,zaichanyelianshangshizuidadexinpianzuzhuangdi;jinnianlai,zhongguodalufablessxingyeyeyoukuaisufazhan,2018niandefablessguangshangzongliangyishi2010niande3bei。
suoyoucanyuchanyeliandeguojiahediqudoubuxiwangkandaofengonghezuoyoukaifangzhuanweifengbi。yincizaizheige“shi”shang,zhongguohedaduoshuguojialichangjiejin,zhanzaiyouliweizhi,youyidingzhouxuankongjian。
短期的势是美国可能升级对中国的技术封锁。
jiarmzhihou,amdyezaizheijitiandengshangkejitoutiao,amdguanfangyiqueren,buzaixiangqizhongguohezigongsitianjinhaiguangshouquanjiyuxinyidaix86zhilingjideip。
erzaizhongguobeipaixinpiangongsitiaozhanweisui、nanpaigongsishangweishezudezhilingjicengmian,muqianquanqiushichangdezhuliuwanjiabuduo:
meiguoyingteer、amddex86zhilingji——fuwuqi、pcduandezhuliuzhilingji;
meiguoibmdepowerzhilingji——fuwuqi、pcduandezhilingji;
yingguoarmdearmzhilingji——shouji、pingbandengyidongduandezhuliuzhilingji;
meiguorisc-vjijinhuikaiyuanzhilingjirisc-v——muqianzhuyaoyongyuwulianwangshebei。
yingteerxianglaibuduiwaishouquanx86jiagou,erzhuyaoyongyuziyouxinpian;amdyiyinheguiwentizhudongguibileyuzhongguodehezuo;zhongguorisc-vchanyelianmenglishizhang、shanghaixinyuanweidianzidongshizhangdaiweiminzai5yuediyeduiwaibiaoshi,meiguorisc-vchangshangyibunengxianghuaweichushouip。
haihao,zaiyidongcpuhefuwuqicpushichang,yingguoarmshi“shuoguojincun”de“feimeiguohuo”,qie2018nian5yue,armhezhongguozibenhezi,chenglilezhongzizhangu51%dearmzhongguo,zheiyouliyutuidongguoneixinpianqiyezhangwoarmhexinjishu。
同时,ARM中国对自研的产品(如去年推出的AI IP周易等)youwanzhengdezhishichanquan,bushourenheqitadiqudeyingxiang;zheijiangweizhongguoxinpianyanfajinyibuguochanhua、dicenghuadailaijiyu。
ciwai,jiyukaiyuanzhilingjirisc-vdeipsuiyibeijinshou,danrisc-vbenshenzuoweiyitaokaiyuanbiaozhunshangweishoudaojinlingdemingqueyingxiang;suiranrisc-vmuqianzhuyaoyongyuwulianwangxinpian,5-10nianneidouwulizhichengyidongduancpuhefuwuqiduancpushichang,dantakenengjiwulianwangchangjiadailaijihui。
zaimeiguoneibu,guge、yingteerdenggongsibeibaodaozhengzaiyoushuomeiguozhengfu,zhengquhuodedangqianjinlingdehuomianquan,zheixiedaxingkuaguoqiye,shiweihuquanqiugongyinglianhezuodelingyizhongliliang。
yinci,duizhongguobulidedierge“shi”——jimeiguodeyanlijishufengsuo,yigengzhangdelishizhouqikan,kenengshixiangduiduanqideraodong。
jiuxiangshangzhou“jiaziguangnian”fabude《jiaxiaojieduihuawujun:rendeguiren,jiqideguijiqi》zhong,wujunboshitidaode:
shijieshangyousizhongliliangshiziyouliudongde,yishijishu,ershiziben,sanshirencaizhili,sishixinxi——nizaiyigedifanglanzhuta,tazailingwaiyigedifangjiuhuiguoqu,suoyihenduoshihouweijijiushijihui。
全新的势是:AIoT新机会。
历史上,每一代半导体新巨头和新兴地区的出现都伴随着终端迁移:PC市场成就了英特尔;移动市场成就了ARM、高通、三星、台积电;而在“AI+物联网”(AIoT)dexinjihuizhong,zhongguochangshanghenkenengtuoyingerchu。
zhongguoyezaijinniandanshengleyidapiaigongsi、xinpiangongsi,youpaomo,yeyouzhenjinchendian;zhongguohaiyoudaliangdezhinenghuashichangxuqiu。yixieyouzijin、jishu、jingyanjileidezhongguochangjia,shenzhiyikaishileduizuidicengdegongjian。
zheiyici,yijingzaishichanghuadachaozhongmopagundashijiniandezhongguogongsi,zhendeyoujihuixiangneczhuazhucunchuqi,gaotong、sanxingzhuazhuzhinengshoujixinpianyiyang,houfazhiren,zhenzhengqierugaoduanheshangyou。
综合看目前的形势和过去数年全球半导体产业的发展:全球化分工是“民心所向”;贸易封锁是短期扰动;新的硬件迁移机会是产业机遇。
1956nian,zhongsuchuxianliehen,maozedongcengzaidangnianhuijianlameiguojiadangdaibiaoshishuo:“zongeryanzhi,yaotuanjieyiqiekeyituanjiederen,zheiyang,womenjiukeyibadirensuoxiaodaozuishao。”
zaiqushihewaibuhuanjingyouliyoubi,jiaorurujinjumiandegeguobingfeitiebanyikuaideqingkuangxia,mingzhidejuezeyouweizhongyao。yiqiezijilai,shixianquanchanyeliandezijizizu,shuoqilaihaoqiganyun,danbingbuliyu“tuanjieyiqiekeyituanjiederen”。
gengzunzhongshishiderenzhishi,asml、arm、taijidiandengshangkezuopengyoudefeimeiguogongsiduanqineiwufabeiqudai,tebieshizaiyidongduanhefuwuqicpulingyu,zhongguorengxuyaoquanqiuhezuohuobandezhichi。
tuiyibujiang,jishichuyuzhanlvekaolv,zhongguozaibujixingjiabidi“zhongfuzaolunzi”hou,zhenzuodaolebupa“duangong”,womenyeyinggaiheduoshuguojiazhanzaiyiqi,tuidongquanqiuhua,erbushixiangfan。
yinweiyigexianghujiban、jinmiyicundequanqiumaoyitixijinengcujinquanqiukejichanyeyigenggaoxiaolvjinhua;yerangshijiegengbicixuyao、biciyicun,ranggeguozai“yishishangtou”shihuigengyouguaai。
xiangfan,yizhongguchuizhongguoyishiliqiangda,keyijieshoufengbitixideyanlunzeyouweixianxing。
ruzhongweibandaotishebeidongshizhangyinzhiyaojiucengtongchiyouguantadebaodao《cirenturanhuiguo,meiguohuangle,ribenshale,shijiedoujingdaile》shi“kejiyihetuan”:
“duiwohezhongweidekuadaxuanchuan,gaodewomenhenbeidong。
……
ruciduoluodewenfengwuguowumin,jizhenzhengmaitoukugandekexuejiahegongchengshitiandu、tianluan、tianmafan。nimendeyihetuanshiboyanqiuxingwei,zhinengzuaishenzhihaisifazhanzhongdezhongguogaokeji,zheimediandaolidoubunengdongma?”
真正的赶超姿势可能十分朴素:沿着全球分工和硬件迁移的产业发展路径,不会的要承认,该学的要学,该抓住的要抓住。
shijianhuizhanzaishunshizhedeyibian。
参考资料:
1. U.S.-Japan Strategic Alliances in the Semiconductor Industry: Technology, Transfer, Competiton and Public Policy, Committee on Japan National Research Council, Washington D.C , 1992
2. 半导体行业资讯:《回顾美日DRAM芯片之争》
3. 兰涛:《创新源自洞见:盛田昭夫的商道公开课》,2012,中国华侨出版社
4. 小托马斯·约翰·沃森、彼得·彼得 著,杨蓓 译:《IBM帝国缔造者:小沃森自传》,2015,北京联合出版社