jinri，zaizhangjiangshangxueyuanchuangchuangshequjubandeniandudakeshang，zhangjiangshangxueyuanjiaoshou、zhongguoshoujiejingjixuejianghuodezhexuchenggangjiaoshoufabiaole《congshuzihuadaorengongzhineng-xinchanyegemingshidaideshangyemoshi》zhutiyanjiang。yiouzuoweiteyaomeiticanjialebencikecheng，bingjiangyanjiangneirongjinxingzhengli。
以人工智能为核心的技术，已经成为正在兴起的新产业革命的基础。面对这样的重大机遇与挑战，企业家和创业者如何做好准备，将挑战变为机遇，许成钢教授以经济学家的视角为大家进行了解答分析。
18-19shijizhongqi，diyicigongyegemingyi“jixiezidonghua”weihexin；19-20shijichu，diercigongyegemingyoujixiehuazhuanweizidonghua；20shiji50niandai-21shijichuyizhichuyudisancigongyegeming，youzidonghuaguodudaoshuzihua；rujin，womenzhengzaichuyudisicigongyegemingshiqi，rengongzhinengzhengshizhengzaixingqidechanyegemingdehexin。
zhengzaixingqidedisicigongyegemingshiyumeiguo，zaibencigongyegemingqijian，yousanxiangjishujianghuiqidaozhiguanzhongyaodezuoyong：yijisuanjikexuejiwangluoweijichufazhanderengongzhineng、yiliangziwulixueweijichufazhandeliangzijisuanheliangzijisuanji、yirenleijiyinzuweijichufazhandeshengwuyiyaohegerenhuayiyao。
人工智能将会影响经济、研究、社会等各个领域，但现在应用的人工智能还是基于90年代所提出来的基础理论，在算法方面依旧处于初期，仍有待发明、突破；在算力方面，理论证明量子计算的算力将是现在的成万亿倍。liangzijisuanjisuiranhuiduirengongzhineng、anquanmima、zhiyao、xincailiaodenglingyuyouyixiejibendegaibian，danshizhizaohezhixingdefangfayoudaifaming。bujinruci，juedaduoshulingyuliyongmoniliangzijisuanjidesuanfarengyoudaifaming。
rengongzhinengdediweiyijingzhujianshangshengweiguojiazhanlve，woguoheshijiegeguodoufenfenzhidinglerengongzhinengfazhanzhanlvehexingdongfangan。2017nian7yue8ri，guowuyuanfabule《rengongzhinengfazhanguihuadetongzhi》。2018nian10yue31ri，xijinpingzongshujizaizhengzhijudijiucijitixuexizhongfabiaole《tuidongwoguorengongzhinengjiankangfazhan》dejianghua，bingqiezaigaijianghuazhichu：“rengongzhinengshiyinlingzheiyilunkejigemingdezhanlvexingjishu，shiwomenyingdequanqiukejijingzhengzhudongquandezhongyaozhanlvezhuanshou，shizhongyaodezhanlveziyuan。”2019nianlikeqiangzonglizaizuozhengfugongzuobaogaozhongtichule“zhineng+”dexinmingti：2019nianyaodazaogongyehulianwangpingtai，tuozhan“zhineng+”，weizhizaoyezhuanxingshengjifuneng。
zaimeiguo，2019nian2yue11ritelangpuqianshule《meiguorengongzhinengchangyi》，bingzaixingzhenglingzhongbiaoshijiangdiaodonglianbangzijinheziyuanyongyurengongzhineng，yiquebaomeiguodelingxiandiwei。zaieluosi，pujing2017nianjiucengbiaoshi：“rengongzhinengbujinjinduiyueluosishiweilai，yeshiquanrenleideweilai。chengweizheiyilingyudelingxianzhe，jiangchengbashijie。”muqian，zhishaoyouzhong、mei、e、jia、han、oumengdeng18geguojiazhidingleaifazhanzhanlvehexingdongfangan。
国务院2017年发布的《人工智能发展规划》的规划最为清晰。国务院2017《人工智能规划》提到：人工智能作为新一轮产业资源变革的核心驱动力；我国人工智能整体发展水平与发达国家比存在着缺少重大原创成果，在基础理论、核心算法、关键设备、高端dengfangmianchajuda、rengongzhinengjianduanrencaiyuanyuanbunengmanzuxuqiudechaju。weici，guowuyuan2017《rengongzhinengfazhanguihua》zhidinglesanbuzhanlvemubiao：
2020nian，rengongzhinengzongtijishuheyingyongyushijiexianjinshuipingtongbu，hexinchanyeguimochaoguo1500yiyuan，xiangguanchanyeguimochaoguo1wanyiyuan；2025nianrengongzhinengjichulilunshixianzhongdatupo，bufenjishuyuyingyongdadaoshijielingxianshuiping，rengongzhinengchengweidaidongwoguochanyeshengjihejingjizhuanxingdezhuyaodongli，hexinchanyeguimochaoguo4000yiyuan，xiangguanchanyeguimochaoguo5wanyiyuan。2030nianrengongzhinenglilun、jishuyuyingyongzongtidadaoshijielingxianshuiping，chengweishijiezhuyaorengongzhinengchuangxinzhongxin，weijishenjingjiqiangguodiandingzhongyaojichu，hexinchanyeguimochaoguo1wanyiyuan，xiangguanchanyeguimochaoguo10wanyiyuan。
jishuchuangxindejibenwentishijilijizhiwenti。yihaoqiweimudedekexuetansuoshitupoxingfazhandeyuanshidongli；yingyongxinghegensuixingyanjiugongzuotongchangfuyigengduominglidejili，lirujiangxiang、zhumingxuefu、zhumingxuezhe、dingjianzazhideng；yishiyongweimudedechuangxinkaoshangyeliyituidong，ruwate、aidisheng、tesila、chekeni、qiaobusidengqiyejia。gemingxingchuangxinsuoyilaidebukehuoquedezhidubaokuofazhi、chanquan（zhishichanquanhejinrong）hezizhidedaxue。
zhidujuedingsheiyongyouziyuan、sheijuedingziyuanpeizhi，kexuejishudezhongdatupojibendoubulaizijihua，xiangfachanshengyuwushuziyoutansuo，renhejieguodouyuanyuyoushenglietaidejingzheng；jihuazhiduiyizhidemubiaoyouxiao，dangemingxingdetupowangwangshiwufayuzhide。”
在知识产权方面，对发明的保护注定会形成一段时间的垄断权，技术垄断、行业标准的话语权等是知识产权的衍生物；shichangdeyoushenglietaijizhikeyibangzhushaixuandalianggerenfaming；baohuminjiantouzigengshikeyibaohugerenfaming。yifazhiweijichu，tongguoshichanghejingzheng，zaizhengtishangjiejuechuangxingegehuanjie，shixianjinrongshichang、zhishichanquanshichang、chanpinshichang、renlishichangzhongde“youshenglietai”，cainengrangjishujinbuchixu，weishehuidailaifuli。
rengongzhinengconglilunjinrushiyongchangjingdesangejibentiaojianshi：suanfa、jisuannengli、dashuju。muqianrenmentandaoderengongzhineng，juedabufenzhideshijiqixuexi，gengjutideshishenduxuexi。rengongshenjingwangluodegainiantichulaideshijianbirengongzhinenghaizao，danshitazhenzhengkaishishiyongshizai80niandai，dao90niandai，jinyibutichushenduxuexidesuanfa，jiuxingchenglexianzaidelilunjichu。
90年代的计算能力是远远不够的，可在过去差不多60年的时间里，每隔18个月左右，计算能力就翻一番，一直到现在。现在每个人手里拿的手机，实际上就是不久以前的超级计算机。但是，这里有很重要的两点。一方面，人工智能的算法仍然在快速发展之中，并不是说从此以后所有的人工智能就是现在我们知道的深度学习，就一定都是人工神经网络。另一方面，集成电路的计算能力已经逐渐到达天花板，为什么呢？问题不在工程，而在物理。物理上有一个分支叫量子力学，它讲的是基本粒子相互之间的关系，现在集成度高的程度已经到了每一个集成电路里做的晶体管大小已经接近原子尺寸。当它接近原子尺寸之后，量子力学一系列的规律就来了，无论技术上怎么优化，都无法达到稳定。
yinci，jiuxuyaosikaobiedechulu。googledetensorflowshigemianxianggongzhongdejiqixuexidekaiyuanpingtai，zaitensorflowdejichushangzuodetpu（tensorflow processing unit），shizhuanmenshejichulaiyunsuanrengongzhinengdeteshuxinpian。suiranzhengtijichengdushangbuqule，dantongguozuozhuanmendexinpianlaijiejuejisuanwenti，yeshiyigesilu。
raner，zhenzhengdegemingxingbianhuabushixinpian、bushibandaoti，ershiliangzijisuan。xianzai，womenyaonongqingchuliangzijisuanjiujingshishenme。
革命性变化的产生都来源于好奇，量子计算也不例外。1981nian，feimanzaiyanjiuliangzilixuedeguochengzhong，youyigexuyaodemoxingjiebuchulai。tagusuanleyixia，zheigejisuanliangdadaoyaoyongdangshicunzaidechaojijisuanjisuanhaojibainian，shenzhiyiqiannian。suoyitajiukaishisikaozenmejiejuezheigewulixuewenti。
zaijisuanjilishishang，zuizaodoushilianggejisuanfanganbingxingde，yigeshimonijisuanji，yigeshishuzijisuanji。suoweidemonijisuanji，jiushiyongwulideguochenglaimonishuxuedeguocheng。suoweidejisuanjiushiyigeliangziwulideguocheng，erliangziwulideguochengshirenzaodeshiyanzhuangzhi，zhuangzhilimianyouhaoduocanshukeyidiao，xiangdangyuniyaojieyigefangcheng，fangchenglimiandecanshu，nikeyidaijinqu，bajieguocechulai，zaizhuanhuanchengshuzixinhao，jiudedaolezuizhongjieguo。
其次，我们要了解，量子计算究竟有多快。目前1GHz运算速度的64位量子计算机（现在的计算机CPU），其数据处理速度是[太湖之光]超级计算机（每秒9.3亿亿次）的1500亿倍。太湖之光破解1024比特的RSA密钥需要500万年，量子计算机可在160天破解。
dangran，zheixiedoushirenmenyuxiangde。dangqianliangzijisuandeshuipinghaichuzaifeichangchujideyingerjieduan，ruguozai10niannei，liangzijisuanjiyouletupo，neimechaojijisuanjijiumeiyoujiazhile。ruguowomendeyuliaozhunque，neime15nianyihou，suoyouhuazaichaojijisuanjishangqiandoumeiyongle。
guanyurengongzhinengdeyanjiuyuyingyong，meiguozaijichukexuelingyuzuodeyuanyuanbizhongguohao，zhongguozegengduodeshizaiyingyongceng。weilelijiezhongguodeqingkuang，womenbameiguozuoweiqianyandejizhunjinxingduibi，mudebushiweileduibiguoli，ershitongguojizhunduibi，zhidaozhongguosuochudeweizhi。
首先，中美人工智能论文年度发表量对比。congqikanshangfabiaolunwendezongshulaikan，zai2008nianzhiqian，zhongguoyizhiluohouyumeiguo，2008nianzuoyou，zhongguoqikanlunwenfabiaozongshuchaoguolemeiguo，danshidaole2013nianzhihouyoubeimeiguochaole。danzongtilaikan，zongfabiaoliangchengxianchajusuoxiaodequshi。
许成钢教授提供
其中，人工智能学术会议论文更有深挖的价值。rengongzhinengshiyigefazhanjikuaidelingyu，erqieshihenpiangongchengde。yinci，jinxienianlaiyigezhongyaodequshishi，henduoyiliudexuezhedelunwen，wangwangshizaihuiyishangfabude。erqiecanjiahuiyiyougejibentiaojian：niyaoxieyipianlunwensongdaohuiyishangjinxingtongxingpingshen，tongxingrenweinidelunwendadaolehuiyibiaozhun，caikeyicanjiahuiyi。
再看人工智能领域的人才从业年限和领域分布。anzhaolinkedindetongji，zhongguozhuanjiadezongshushi5wanduoren，ermeiguozhuanjiadezongshushi83wanduoren，chajuhenda。shujuchajuxuanshudeyibufenyuanyinshilinkedinkenengbingmeiyoujiangzhongguozhuanjiajishishoudaoshujukuzhong。jibianruci，womenyijiuyaochengrenshuangfangcunzaizhechaju。tongguobiaogekeyikandao，gongzuo10nianjiyishangdezishenrengongzhinengzhuanjia，zaizhongguodequantizhuanjiazhongzhanle38.7%，ermeiguozishenzhuanjiadezhanbiwei71.5%，keyikandaoliangbiandechajufeichangda。
许成钢教授提供
在人才领域分布方面，做基本算法研究的人才，在美国占56.5%，在中国只占45.6%。tongshiwomenhaiyingzhuyidao，zhongguodejishuxiao，tamendejishuda，suoyirencaishuliangfangmianwomendechajuhenda。haiyouyigezhongyaodelingyushiyingjianjixinpian，anbilisuan，zhongguocongshixinpianlingyuderencaibilizhan15.1%，zaimeiguozuoxinpiandebilizhan7.2%，kanqilaizhongguotoujinqudebilidahenduo，danyinweiliangbianjishubutong，shijishangmeiguotoujinqudezongrenlibizhongguodahenduo。
zuihou，bijiaozhongmeiailingyudeqiyeqingkuang。anchuangyegongsideshuliangsuan，zhongguoyouhenzhangdeshijianjilei，bingqiemeinianderongzishuzidouhenda。danshi，genjutengxunyanjiuyuandeshuju，zhongguorengongzhinengchuchuangqiyecunzaiyidingdepaomo，suoyixiangmujiuhuibiandehengui；danzaimeiguoshifanguolaide，meiguogengpianzhongjichuyanjiu，xueshushangyouhendajinzhan，yincixiangfahenduo，nengxiyingengduodetouzizhe。
ciwai，congzhongmeirengongzhinengchuangyegongsideguimolaikan，zairengongzhinengdejiudalingyu，meiguozhiyouzaixinpianlingyushidagongsiduo，qiyulingyuyixiaogongsijuduo。meiguoxinpiangongsiguimobizhongguoda，zhuyaoyuanyinshizhongguodexinpiangongsizhisheji，buzhizao。zongtilaikan，zhongguoqiyeduoweizhongdengguimo，meiguozeshidagongsihexiaogongsijuduo。
rengongzhinengzhengzaiyigemingxingdesuduheguangdufazhan，bingqieyijingshenduyingxiangleduogexingye。muqian，zhongguozaishenduxuexifangmiandeguimoyumeiguoxiangsi，bingqiezaiyixieyingyonglingyuchuyuquanqiulingxiandiwei，danzhongguozairengongzhinengdejibensuanfa、xinpian、chuanganqi、liangzijisuandengfangmianluohouyuduoshufadaguojia。youqishiliangzijisuanzuoweiquanxinderengongzhinengsuanfadejichu，jianghuituporengongzhinengjishubilei，weigengweiguangfandeyingyongdakaixindamen。
以上内容根据许成钢教授在长江创创社区年度大课上的分享内容整理，有删减。