华为与美国的“芯”事,再次将xingyedairuyulunredian。ziben,zaoyitiqianxingdong。
“xinpianxingyetouzi,jigeyihenzhengchang,pengshangzhengzaifengkougainiandexiangmu,nengtourujishigeyi。”yutaichetongdianzikejiyouxiangongsichuangshiren、dongshizhangshiqingyoudiandanyou,taxiwangzibenheshichangyidingyaolengjing。
yutaichetongzhuyingyitaiwangxinpiandeshejiyuxiaoshou,chengliyu2017nian1yue。tongnian7yue,yutaichetongdiyicirongzibianyoushiduojiajigouhetouzirenqianlaiqiatan,yigeyueneinadaoqianwanjirongzi,zaiyeneishuyubucuodechengguo。
2018nian“zhongxingbeimeiguoduangong”shijianfashengzhihou,xingyexianqiyiboxiaorechao,bishizhengfengyutaichetongjinxingdierlunrongzi,qianlaizixun、qiatandetouzirenhejigoushuliangfanbei,qianhouhualejinlianggeyueshijian,zuizhongxinyilunrongzijineshangyiyuanrenminbi。
buguo,duiyuyanxiazibendefengkuang,shiqingbingmeiyoutaileguan。tabiaoshi:“henduotouzirenbingbulejiexingye,zhenzhengnenggouzuoxialaitanhezuodezhiyoushilaigeren;youyixieqiyedejishuheyewubuzenmeyang,danbuquetouziren。”
danshi,zhuanyemenjianyezudangbulezibenreqing。
nianchu,shanghaizhengquanjiaoyisuoshelikechuangban,xiangduikuansongdeyingliyaoqiurangbushaoxinpianqiyeyueyueyushi。5yue24ri,xinpiandaigongqiyezhongxinguojixuanbucongniujiaosuotuishi,waijiecaiceqimubiaoshihuiguodengshangkechuangban;tongqi,ziguangjituanqixiashoujixinpianshejiqiyeziguangzhanruixuanbukaishiweikechuangbanshangshizuozhunbei,nianneiwanchengzhengtigaizhiherongzi,jihua2020nianshenqingshangshi。
5yue27ri,kechuangbanshangshidiyipimingdangongbu,sanjiaqiyezhongjiuyouzhuyingxinpianhuaxuecailiaodeanjiweidianzikeji。anjichengliyu2004nian,shishanghaizhangjiangxinpianchuangyechaodechanwu,youmeiguozhimingcailiaohuaxuezhuanjiawangshuminhuiguochuangban。
daliangzijinliuru,kenengyoufaqiyezhijiandejiagezhan,congerlagaoxingyechengben。shiqingzuidanxinde,moguoyubenlaikeyiyinglidexingye,kenengzuizhonghuibianchengpaomo,xiangjinnianhulianwangdezhongzhongmihuangushiyiyang。“dengdaopaomoposui,xingyeyaozaichuangjianyigelianghaodeshengtai,jiniandeguangyinjiulangfeile。”taqiangdiao。
shanghaizixungongsiicwiseshouxifenxishiguwenjunfenxi,xingyefazhanguoreshi,gengyaobimianfeilixing、mangmudetaishi。zaiguoji,yaowanshanbinggoushenpizhidu,bimian“hongtaiwujia”hewuxiaobinggoudengfumianyingxiang;zaiguonei,yaoguifanzhongzichanxiangmudeshangma,bimianwuxujingzheng。
sheidouxiwang,dangchaoshuiguoqu,liuxiadebushiyidijimao。
xinpianshiyigezhouqihenzhangdexingye,congyanfa、chanpinluodi,daoliangchan、tourushichang,duanze3nian、5nian,zhangzekeda10nianyishang。
wulunshishanggeshiji90niandaide“909gongcheng”,haishi2000nianzhihoushanghaizhangjiangdejichengdianluchanyebaofa,meiyidaixinpianrendoushenfulixiang、chouchumanzhi,ranershizhijinri,zhongguoxinpianxingyededaoluyiranmanzhang。
芯片行业主要分为三种运作模式:idm、fablesshefoundry。idmjixinpiansheji、xinpianzhizao、xinpianfengzhuangheceshidengduogechanyelianhuanjieyuyishen;fablesszhifuzexinpiandedianlushejiyuxiaoshou;foundryzhifuzezhizao、fengzhuanghuoceshiqizhongyigehuanjie。
zaixinpianchanyelianzhong,cpu、gpuhedspdengchuliqixinpianchuyu“danao”weizhi,youyudicengjichujiagouqueshi,chuliqiguochanhuadaolujiannan,zhuyaoyilaijinkou;zhongguodaluqiyezhaduidehuanjiezaixinpiansheji,zheishizuiqingzichandefablessyihuan,yeshizuirongyiganshangshijieqianlieshuipingdelingyu,yazhouzuidadexinpianshejichangshangshilianfake,huaweizaigailingyuyeweijuqianlie。
芯片制造领域的追赶计划,则需要从长计议。muqiantaijidianshiquanqiuzuidaxinpiandaigongzhizaoshang,zhanjuquanqiuyue50%shichangfene,taijidiande7nmzhizaogongyiyijingkaishiliangchan,huawei、pingguodoushiqikehu,5nm、3nmgongyideliangchanjihuayijingyoulejutishijianjiedian,2nmdegongyiyanfayezhengshiqidong。
xiangbizhixia,daludezhongxinguojiganggangyu2018nian1yueshixian14nmgongyiliangchan,zhongjianxiangchajidaijishudaicha。
中国工程院院士倪光南在接受媒体采访时谈及中美芯片差距,芯片设计赶上最容易,其次是芯片“生态”建设,最难的便是芯片制造,时间规划以10年起步都不奇怪。
shiqingcong2000niankaishiguanzhuxingye,neishihou,rencaiduanqueshixingyezuizhijiedenanti。
“wo2005nianboshibiyeshi,guoneixiangzhaoyigejingyanlaodaodegongchengshidouhennan,dangshihenduochuangyezhecongguiguhuilai,ganggangchuangyeshi,tuanduidoushixinren,yibianjiaoyibianzuo,xiangdaixueshengyiyang。”shiqingzhiyan,“zuojichengdianlu,you10nianyishangzilidegongchengshicaisuankekao,zaiguigu,henduo50~60suidegongchengshihaifendouzaiyixian。”
十多年过去,中国芯片领域的人才积累有了一定基础,但史清依然认为,虽然当前人才储备足以应对市场上80%的芯片,但是在高精尖领域,人才还远远不够。
zibenredebeihou,shixingyeduiyuguochan“xin”xuqiudepoqie。
不少从事芯片行业的人士表示,这是一个逐步生长的趋势,即便没有中兴、华为事件,全球芯片产业链也在逐步向中国转移。
jinshinian,xinpianxingyekejirenshiluluxuxucongmeiguoguilaichuangye,yijingpojuguimo,qibujiaowandezhongguoxinpianxingye,genglibukaiquanqiuchanyelianheshengtai,danruguobimenzaoche,neime,zaigaojishuhezaiduojinqiantouruyenanyichenggong。
guyoudexingyegejuzaisongdong,beihoushizhongguoxinpianqiyedejiyu。buguo,hulianwangxingyedepaomoshiqianchezhijian,guoneididuanxinpianlingyuyiyouciqushi。
在不同技术层面的芯片领域,发展与竞争形势完全不同。xinpianzhongleiwuhuabamen,diduanxinpiandetedianshibaicaijia,qieliangda,guoneichuchuanggongsizaizheigelingyuzaozaozhadui,zuochuleyigebijiaochengshudechanyelian,shichangyijingshiyipianhonghai。
最高端的是手机AI芯片,在大小、功耗上有着极高要求,苹果、、联发科和高通等主要厂商都发布了AI芯片,中国信息通信研究院的《白皮书》数据显示,2017年全球手机AI芯片市场规模为3.7亿美元,预计在2022年达到38亿美元,未来五年有接近十倍的增长。
mianduizibendeyiyongershang,shiqingbaochizhejuli,“bulejiexinpianqiyedetouziren,tadeqiwanghewomenzuihoushijidejieguobuyiyang,zheiyangduishuangfangdoubuhao。”duiyuturanbaofadeaixinpianchangshang,shiqingrenwei,xingyekendinghuijinglixipai。
yimingjinglichuangyezaihuiguichuantongxinpiangongsiderenshibiaoshi,shangyemoshikekao、tuanduiyoudaniubeishudechuangyezhegengshouzibenqinglai,tamenyouzugoudadexuanzeyudi,yuzibenhuli,yibaozhengzijinliangxingxunhuan,danxuanzebuduodechuangyetuanduizehuijieshougeluzijin,zheirangyixieyuanbenshilibuzudeqiye,yenengzaixingyezanshishengcun。zhangyuankan,zheiduiyuxinpianxingyedefazhanshiyizhongsunhai。
quanqiuxinpianxingyeyijingxingchengjutou,danzaizhongguo,xinderujuzheyiranzaidengdaishiji。
按照发展规律,每个行业细分不同的领域,每一条跑道做了5到10年,市场就会集中在头部的一两家,此时新人再去撬动份额非常困难。如果新创公司想要拥有一席之地,必须在没人涉足的新领域趁机入场。
guanyujiafengqiusheng,huamikejichuangshiren、ceohuangwangjuchuleyingguochuliqiipgongyingshangarmdelizi。
zaoqi,yingteerdex86jiagouyuwindowsgouchengwintellianmeng,longduanlepclingyu,kuyushengcundearmzhuazhuleshoujilingyudejiyu,chengweiyidongduancpujutou,chengzheyidonghulianwangdedongfeng,jinnianjileizugoushilidearmkaishizhaoqiekoufangongpcduan。
buguo,huamidexinpianzhilugengxiangshunshierwei。
2015nian,xiaomishouhuanxiaoliangpo1000wan,2016nianchu,huamixiwangxiayidaichanpinnengyouyigejisuannengligenghao、gengfuheyiliaojiankangxuqiudexinpian。huamidexuqiushi,xinpianjiaruyiliaogongneng,yongxinlvshuju、xindiantushujudengdashuju,zuoaixunlian,dechuyigeshenjingwangluozaifangruxinpian。
黄汪带着团队在市场上找了一圈,却没有收获,合作伙伴高通也表示无奈。“我们发现,终端厂商的需求超前于上游的芯片厂商所能提供的东西。womenpaodetaikuaile,shangyougenbenhaimeiyouzheizhongxinxingdexinpian。”
黄汪决定自己造芯。
可穿戴设备是一个细分市场,华米在智能可穿戴领域是一个小巨头,可以包揽自己的上下游业务,甚至核心芯片。与上游芯片公司不同,终端公司拥有大量用户和数据,他们做细分领域芯片,只需要解决技术问题,相对更加容易。
huangwangyetijilingyicenggulv,ruguozaiaixinpianshangyilaishangyouxinpiangongsi,neimetamendejingzhengduishou,huizaidiyishijianzhidaohuamidexindongxiang。neimezaizishenshilinenggouchudadeqingkuangxia,huamiziyanxinpian,jinenggoubaomi,yenenggouchuangjianjingzhengmenjian。
“yimeiiotkechuandaixinpian,you1000wanshebeiliangdejichu,jiunengshouhuichengben。”huangwangzhiyan。genjuxiaomigongkaishuju,jiezhidao2018nian9yue,xiaomishouhuanquanqiuleijichuhuoliangchaoguo5000wan。
jinnian6yue11ri,huamixinpinamazfitmidongjiankangshoubiaoheamazfitzhinengshoubiaojundazaileziyanaixinpianhuangshan1hao,dandangtianfabudexiaomishouhuan4shangweidazaigaixinpian。huangwangbiaoshi,weilaichuleyongyuzijiachanpin,huangshanyihaohuojiangkaifanghezuo。
终端厂商可以在芯片细分领域搭建护城河,上游厂商也可以在细分行业找到突破口。
yutaichetongzhaodaodetupokoushiyitaiwang。yitaiwangzai2000nianzuoyouchengweizhuliu,5nianhouwuxianwi-fiquerdaizhi,yitaiwangdezhuyaozhanchangzhuanxiangletouyingyi、anfangjiankong、baomixingdiannaojiekou,yijiduichuanshuzhiliangyaoqiuhengaodeshujuzhongxin,alibaba、jingdongdengdianshangfuwuqi,xuyaodaliangyitaiwangxinpian。
“zheikuailingyuyoujishumenjian,suoyiguoneishichangyizhimeiyouwanjiajiaru,lirunkongjianhaibucuo。”shiqingshuo,2017nianzhihou,wanwuhulianshidailailin,yitaiwangyoulexindeyingyongchangjing——chezai,chezaichanpinduiyudaikuanyaoqiugenggao,yechengweiyitaiwangxinpiandexinjiyu。
5g、wulianwangdedaolai,beigegexingyeshiweixinfengkou。guoneixinpianxingyekaishichuxianyizhongjiaolv,bujuduoniandexinpianqiye,xiwangzhuazhuzheigefengkou,yisuoduanyujutoudechaju。
jiaolvbeihou,shibuduanjinxingdexingyebinggou。
6yue2riwanjian,ziguangguoweixiangziguangjituanxiashugongsijiqitatouzirenfaxingxingu,shougouziguangqixiaxinpianlianjieqichangshanglinxens。ruozichanzhongzushunlijinxing,ziguangjituanqixiaxinpianchanyebushujibenchengxing,6niandepinfanbinggouzhihou,ziguangjituanhuixiayongyouziguangguowei、ziguangzhanrui、zhangjiangcunchuhexinhuasanjituan。
调研机构Gartner的数据显示,2018年,在芯片领域,、intel、skhailishidequannianyingshoujuquanqiuqiansan,hanguoqiyezhanliangxi;quanqiuxinpianyingshouzongewei4767yimeiyuan,qizhongneicunxinpianshouruzhanbizuigao,dazongyingshoude34.8%。
韩国芯片产业能够从零出发成为量产芯片产业的领导者,绝不仅仅是一蹴而就,而是一部由企业主导、政府支持、市场联动的三部曲。zhongguoxinpianchanyeyezhengzaijinglizheiyangdeshike,duoniandebutiehetouruxia,zhongguoxinpianqiyeyirancunzaikuisun,zhangpaohaizaijixu。
一名存储芯片从业人士表示,全球存储芯片最强的是三星、海力士,三星的64层3D NAND芯片技术已经实现量产,而国内企业的32层3D NAND芯片技术尚不稳定;另外,国内企业在芯片设计软件上依然存在软肋,比如翻译芯片设计语言的EDA工具软件,或许会成为下一个“卡脖子”技术。
shiqingfenxi:“zhongguohenduoqiyedoushishichangdegensuizhe,jibian‘qianmiandechirou,houmiandehetang’,danyeyaoyizhigenzhe,5dao10nian,zonghuiyouduochulaideshichang,youchaoyiri,womenkeyidachengpingshou,shenzhifanchaoduishou。”
xinpianchanpinxuyaozaidaliangdeshiyongzhongfaxianwenti,gengxindiedai,kehugoumaijiyuqiyeziyuanhezijingengxinchanpin、tishengjishu。duiyuzhongxinguojizheiyangzaigaoduangongyimuqianshangquefajingzhenglidexinpianzhizaoshanglaishuo,keyijingxiaxindamomougejieduandegongyi,daijishuchengshu、fuwudaoweizhihou,jiunenggoubaozhengbucuodeyingshou,yehuiyougengduodeziyuantourugaoduangongyikaifa。
作为芯片出口大国,美国屡发禁令,给国际上下游企业敲响了警钟:待一切平息,需将更多技术资源分散,扶持后面的跟随者,而不是死盯芯片巨头。
shiqingduicishenyoutihui,guoqushuofuyijiaqiyeshiyongchuangyegongsidexinpinxinpian,yaoshixiandaokehudegongchengshibumenshiyanshishiyong,dadaoyaoqiuhou,zaishuofuduifangchanpinbumenjiangxinpianlieruliangchanmingdan,suihoucainengbeihuo,zhenggeliuchengfeichangmanzhang。xianzai,dakehuhuizhudongjiechuxinchuanggongsidechanpin,tongdaogengjiakuanchang。
“zheishihoukanzhehenjiannan,shenzhizaikuiqian,danyidingyaodingzhu。”shiqingzaiweizijidaqi,yezaiweizhenggezhongguoxinpianchanyedaqi。