【编者按】作为科创板重点支持领域,集成电路乃至半导体产业的发展一直广受各界人士关注。下文从全球半导体2018数据分析,中国半导体投资创业机会,设计演进历史和趋势等角度展开分析,深入的介绍了过去一年该领域的发展状况。
jinjinianquanqiubandaotilingyufashengleduoqibinggou,qizhongbufazhongguozibendecanyu,jichengdianluchanyexiangzhongguodaluzhuanyiyichengyejiegongshi。yujijinnianquanqiujichengdianlushichangguimojiangdadao5000yimeiyuan,zuoweiquanqiuguimozuida、zengsuzuikuaidezhongguojichengdianlushichangguimoyejiangdadao2wanyiyuanrenminbi。
suizhezhongguojichengdianluchanyefazhanqudezhangzujinbu,chanyeliankuangjiadajianjibenwancheng,chanyejiegoubuduanwanshan,chanyefenweiyegengjianonghou。weiraocunchuqixinpian、huahewubandaoti、rengongzhineng、wulianwangdengxiangguandechanyejiqunfenfenluodi。zhongguobandaotichanyeqiangshijueqijianghuidaidonggengduoshangji,tongshibentushebeijicailiaochangshangyehuizaizheibofazhanlangchaozhongtongbushouyi。
shouxian,woxiangjidajiajieshaodianzichanyehebandaotichanyezaiquanqiugdplimiandediwei。
2017nian,quanqiugdpzongeyuewei83wanyimeijin,qizhongdianzixiangguandechanyegongxianyue1.5wanyimeijin,dagaizhanquanqiugdpde1.8%。zheigebiligenwomenpingshideganjuebijiaoxiang,yigenianshouru100wandejiating,yiniandagaihuafei1-2wangoumaigezhongdianzishebei,baokuoshouji、diannao、dianshi、dianbingxiangdeng。weilai,suizhewomenzaidianzishebeishanghuafeiyuelaiyueduo,zheigebilijianghuiyuelaiyueda,zheiyeshidianzichanyehebandaotichanyedezengzhangsuduyizhikuaiyuquanqiugdpzengzhangsududeyuanyinzhiyi。
dianzichanyelimianbandaotichanyezhanbiyuewei1/3,2017nianbandaotichanyezongzhiyuewei4300duoyimeijin,2018nianchanzhi4700yimeijin。bandaotichanyezongzhicong1996niande1400duoyimeijinzengzhangdaojintiandebudao5000yimeijin,nianfuhezengzhanglvpingjunzai6%zuoyou。
er5000yimeijindebandaotixiaoshouezhongde1/3yaohuazaichengbenshang。zhuyaobaokuoliangbufen,qizhongzibenzhichubaokuomaishebeihejianchangmeiniandagaihuafei1100yimeijin;lingwaigoumaishengchanxinpiandeyuancailiaozai2016nianhuafei400yimeijin,2017nianhuafei481yimeijin,2018nianyujiwei500yimeijin。
chaoguo4700yimeijindebandaotixiaoshouezhuyaolaizinaxieqiyeni?
我们看一下全球前15大半导体公司,其中最大的半导体厂商zaizhenggexiaoshouezhongzhanbiyuewei20%,2018niandechanzhiyujiwei800duoyimeijin,di2mingyingteeryuewei700yimeijin。yingteerzhanjubandaotibangshoudeweizhidagaiersanshiniandeshijian,zhidao2017niancaibeisanxingchaoguo,2018nianyouyuneicunzhangjiadeyuanyinyingteerluohousanxingbijiaoduo。
据统计,全球前15名的半导体厂商大概占整个行业的80%,所以半导体是一个集中度非常高的行业。当前,全球前15大半导体厂商里面没有一家中国公司,所以我们追赶的路还很长。ruguoanzhaoyingyonghuafen,5000yimeijindexiaoshouezhong1000duoyishicunchuchanpin,qizhongdramneicunjiugongxianle1100yimeijin,nandshancunxiaoshouedagaiwei600duoyimeijin,jiexialaishishuzixinpian、monixinpiandeng。
2018世界前10大半导体厂商的门槛大概在120亿美金左右,中国youwangjinru2019nianquanqiuqian10dabandaotichangshang。ruguocongzengzhanglvdejiaodukan,2018nianzhuyaodezengzhanghaishilaizicunchuchanpin,cunchugongsibuguanshisanxing、skhailishihaishimeiguang,qizengzhangsududouyuanchaoxingyepingjunzengsu,baokuodongzhihainengshixiangaochengzhangyeshiyinweicunchu,shangbannianhenduoshuzihuobi、rengongzhinenggongsihuimaidongzhixiankazuojiasu,suoyiqishangbannianzengsubijiaokuai,danxiabannianzengsujiumanxialaile。
quanqiucunchushichangfeneshizenmehuafendeni?1400yimeijindeshichangzhongdramheflashzhanledabufen。congzengzhanglvshangkan,jingguo2017niandefengkuangzengzhangyihou,2018niandesudurengranhenkuai。zhidezhuyideshi,zheiyibodezengzhangzhuyaoshilaiziyuzhangjia,erbushilaiziyuchuhuoliangdedafudutisheng。suoyijinjinianbandaotidegaosuchengzhangli,bufenyuanyinshizhangjiazaochengdepaomo。congchucunyingyongshangkan,zhuyaohaishidiannaohetongxinshichang,zuizhiguandeganshoushiwomendeshoujicongzuizaode10duogcunchudaolejintian200duog,yingpanchanpinyemanmandibeissdchanpinsuotidai。
kanwanxiaoshouzaikanzibenzhichu,zheigezhibiaoshihenzhongyaoyuceweilai2~3nianbandaotichanyejingqichengdudeyujing。cong2017niankaishi,bandaotixingyedezibenzhichukaishikuaisudishangsheng,quanqiuqian5dabandaotigongsi2018niandezibenzhichubi2017nianzengjiale16%,er2017niandezibenzhichuyijingbi2017niannianchuyuqigaole35%。quanqiuqian3dabandaotichangshang(sanxing、yingteer、taijidian)zhongdesanxing2017niandezibenzhichudadaole250yimeijin,2018nianyedadaole200duoyimeijin,zheigeshuzishifeichangherende,yaozhidaozhongguodaludebandaotixiaoshouecai300duoyimeijin,quanbuxiaoshouenachulaijisanxingzuozibenzhichuheyuancailiaocaigoukenengdoubugou。zibenzhichulimianzhongyuyoulezhongguodaluchangshang,jiushizhongxinguoji。zhongxinguojimeiniandagaihuihua20duoyimeijindezibenqujianxinchanghegouzhixinshebei。muqianquanqiubandaotichanyedezibenzhichuyeshifeichangjizhongde,qian5dachangshangjiuzhanlezhenggezibenzhichude65%zuoyou,sanxingyijiadagaizhan20%-25%。
touzizheimeda,changshangdedaoleshenmeni?touziduodegongsi,ruyingteer、sanxing、taijidiandegongyifazhansudufeichangkuai,touzishaodegongsizirankaifajindujiuhuiman,xiangzhuishangzheixiexianjindegongyibingburongyi。dangqianzhongguobandaotidezibenzhichuyijingdengyuouzhou、ribendezonghe。2014nian,zhongguobandaotizibenzhichudagaibudaotamende1/4。sinianhoude2018nian,zhongguodezhichuyijingchaoguoleouzhouheribendezonghe。suoyi,zhongguobandaotidetouzisuduzaizengzhang,zhenggechanyeyezaijinxingzhuanyi。
yinweizhongguobandaotidezibenzhichubuduanshangsheng,zhongguodexinpianzhizaoshengchanzongzhiyezaibuduanditisheng,cong2012niandeyue80yimeijinzengzhangdao2017niande180yimeijin,yujiweilaiwuniandezengsuhuizai13%zuoyou,dagaishiquanqiubandaotichanyezengsude3beizuoyou,shiquanqiugdpzengsude6beizuoyou。
chulegoumaishebeihecailiao,bandaotichangshangdezibenzhichuzhonghendayibufenshiquzuoyanfa,zheiyeshiyigefeichangjizhongdelingyu,quanqiuqian80mingchangshangdagaimeiniantouru360yimeijinzuoyanfa,er2017nianzhenggechanyedezibentouruyecaiyuewei600yimeijin,suoyiyanfayeshiyigetoubuxiaoyingfeichangjizhongdelingyu。2000nianzhihou,bandaotichanyedeyanfatouzihezongchanzhizhijiandebiliyizhizai10%dao15%zhijianbodong,xianzaidebizhishizai13%。zhongguoguoneichangshangdeyingshoushuexiangduibijiaoshao,yanfatouruzhanbidepingjunzhichaoguo20%,shenzhigenggaoyidian。quanqiuqian10dabandaotichangshangzhongzuiduodeshiyingteer,2017niandagaitou130duoyimeijinzuoyanfa。gaotonghebotongliangjiagongsitouru30duoyimeijin,zhantamenyingshoude20%zuoyou。sanxinghetaijidiandoushiyanfaxiaolvfeichanggaodegongsi,sanxing2017nianzhiyou5.2%deyingshoutourudaoyanfa,danshitadegongyishuipinghejishushuipingdoushilingxiande。taijidian2017niantourudebilizai8%zuoyou,dantashiquanqiuzuixianba7namiliangchandegongsi,bisanxingkuailedagaiyiniandeshijian。
yishangshiquanqiubandaotichanyedezhengtiqingkuang,jiexialaikanyixiagenwomenguanxizuidadejingyuandaigonghexinpianshejizheilianggexifenlingyu。xinpianshejishichuangyezuizhuyaodefashengdi,zaitantaoxinpianshejizhiqianyidingyaokanjingyuandaigong,yinweijingyuandaigonggengxiangyigexinpianshejixingyedetiqianliangzhishiqi。
2017nian,jingyuandaigongshichangzuidadegongsishitaijidian,dagaizhanlezhenggexingyede52%,yingshoudadaole320duoyimeijin,quanxingyechanzhiyuewei616yimeijin。2018nian,daigongchanyezengzhangdehenkuai,zhengtichanzhizengzhanglechaoguo42yimeijin,zengzhanglvyuewei9%。qizhong90%dezengzhanglaiziyuzhongguoshichang,yujizheigeshuzizaiweilaijinianrengranhuibaochifeichanggao,shenzhikenengchaoguo100%,yejiuyiweizhechulezhongguoshichangzhiwaidejingyuandaigongchanzhizaixiajiang,zhenggedexinpianshejichanyezaixiangzhongguojiju,yinweixinpianshejichanyeshijingyuandaigongchangdekehu,suizhekehuliangzengjia,jingyuandaigongdexiaoshoueyehuibuduandishangsheng。
congzhongguoquyudejingyuandaigongzhanbiyekeyikanchuzheigequshi,zhongguodejingyuandaigongxiaoshouezhanquanqiudebilicong2015niande11%zengjiadao2016niande19%。qizhong,taijidianrengranshiyijiaduda,zhanleyibandefene,zhongxinguojizaizhongguoshichangdefeneyebijiaoda,zai20%zuoyou。jiexialaishiumc、geluofangde、huahonghualidengdajiafeichangshuxidejingyuandaigongchang。
congquanqiujingyuandaigongdechuhuoqingkuangkan,quanqiumeiniandagaixiaoshou2yizhangdengxiao8cunjingyuan。qizhong,luohoujiedianhechengshujiedianjibenyijingwending,buduanzaizengzhangdeshi20namiyixiadexianjinjiedian,cong6cun、8cun、12cunjingyuandefenbulaikan,12cundebiliyuelaiyuegao。
jiexialikanwomenzuishuxidexinpianshejishichang。xinpianshejigongsijiushifablesshechuantongdeidm。suiranidmdeyingshougenggao,danshiidmdezengzhangbijiaoman,dao2016nianqishijibenshangmeiyouzengzhang,cong1700yimeijindao2000yimeijinzuoyou,2017nianyouyuneicunjiagezengzhangchuxianledafutisheng。ruguohulveneicunzhangjiayinsu,idmliniandeyingshoujibenshichipingde。erfablesscongzaoqizhiyou70duoyimeijinchengzhangdao2017niande1000yimeijin,qichengzhangsuduyuanyuangaoyuzhenggebandaotixingye。yinweifablessdezichangengqing,meiyouzhongzichanheshengchandeshufu,suoyifablessgongsikandaojihuideshihougengjiarongyizhuazhujihui。
Fabless模式其实是在1987年台积电成立以后才开始发扬光大,光刻机这样的生产设施让Fabless公司的活力被激发出来。过去三十年中只有两三年Fabless公司的成长速度是低于整个产业的,而且更多是因为涨价等额外因素干扰,其他大部分的时间里,Fabless公司的成长更快,这就是为什么这么多优秀的人才投入到了Fabless公司当中。我们提到过晶圆代工的增长比较快,9%左右的增长速度和Fabless公司的增长速度类似,因为它们几乎是完全同步的。当Fabless公司销售上升时,自然需要给晶圆代工下更多的订单,所以这两个领域的成长在过去十年左右的时间里都更快,而且未来增速仍然会保持在整个半导体产业增速的两倍左右。回顾一下之前的几个数字:全球的GDP增速大概是2%左右;全球的半导体增速大概是4%左右;Foundry和Fabless的增速大概是9%左右。
bandaotilimianyouhenduodexifen,baokuocunchuqi、shuzixinpian、tongxinxinpiandeng。muqianchuangyefeichanghuoredejigelingyu,shouxianshimoni,monidequanqiushichangyuewei500duoyimeijin,yeshiyigetoubuxiaoyingfeichangjizhongdelingyu,qian10dagongsizhanle59%,danbutongyushuzixinpiandejizhong,yikuanshuzixinpiandexiaoshoueshi10yimeijinshenzhigenggaodeshouru,xiaogongsihennanqujingzheng。monixinpianlingyudedezhouyiqiyou100duoyimeijindeyingshou,danzheigeshourushiyoujiqianshenzhishijiwanzhongchanpinhezaiyiqipinchulaide,xiangduieryan,xifenlingyuchuangyedechenggonglvhuigenggao,monidetedianjiushiyigesuipianhua、xiaoerquandeshichang。ranhoushiqiche,qichexinpianshizuijinjinianzengzhangfeichangkuai,weilaiyehuifeichanghuoredeshichang。2018nianqichexinpianchanyezengzhanglvyuewei18%,guoqujiniandouzai10%yishang,nianfuhezengzhanglvzai15%zuoyou。xianzaimeiliangchedebandaotixinpianchengbendagaiyao540meijin,zheigeshuzihaihuibuduandishangsheng。jinniandecesshangqichedianzideneirongyuelaiyueduo,xinpianchangshang、chuantongchechang、xinxingchechangbaokuojiadianchangshangdouzainulijijinzheigeshichang。queshi,weilaiduiwurenjiashidiandongqichedexiangxiangkongjianfeichangda,xuyaodedianzixinpianbujianhuiyuelaiyueduo,youshujuxianshiqishuliangkeyidadao3-5beiyishang。buguangshizhengchedeshuliangzaizengzhang,meigechelimiandedianzilingbujiandeshuliangtongyangyezaizengzhang。
xiamian,woxiangliaoyixiagerenzaizhongguobandaotitouzihechuangyezhongkandaodeyixiejihui。
zongtiguina,zhongguobandaotixianzaideqingkuang:jishizuihaodeshihouyeshizuihuaideshihou。zhongguoguoneiyoudaliangdedianzijiagongzhizaoye,danshizaixinpianfangmianyouyouhenduodeduanban。
2018nian,zhongguojinkou3121yimeijindexinpian,erquanqiudeshichangzongeyejiushi4700yimeijin,zhongguojinkouledagai2/3,suanshangchukoude846yimeijin,nichagaoda2274yimeijin。erqie,zheiyijingshizhongguolianxuliunianjinkoubandaotichaoguo2000yimeijin,zheishiyigejudadeshichangjihui,zheijiushiweishenmegezhongtouzidouzaiwangzhongguoyongru。
zhongguoxinpianzizhutigongdebilifeichangdi,chuletongxinshebeiliyinweihaisiheziguangzhanruilianggedagongsicunzaiyouchaoguo10%debilizhiwai,qitalingyudezijilvdoufeichangdedi,shenzhihenduodelingyudoushijiejin0%,zheishiyigechumujingxindeshuzi。
zhongguoguoneidexinpianshejixingyeyezaibuduandizhuigan,congguoqudeershinianlaikan,chengzhangdesudushifeichangkuaide,nianfuhezengzhangsuduchaoguo40%,2018niandechengzhangsuduyedadaole32%,yinweijishutaixiaole,suoyiyizhidaoquniandoushigaosuzengzhang,xianzaideshichangguimoyejiushi380yimeijinzuoyou。xiangjiaoyu2007-2017nianquanqiuxinpianshichang4.4%dezengzhanglv,zhongguoxinpianshichangdezengzhanglvyizhizaiweichizai30%yishang,zhongduoyanjiujigouyucezheiyangdezengzhanglvhaihuizaichixu5-10nian。
congxinpianqiyedeshulianglaikan,zhongguoguoneidexinpianqiyezai2016nianyouyigefeichangdadeyuesheng,cong700duojiayixiazitiaodaole1300jia,2018niandeguanfangtongjishujuyijingdaole1700jia,shijideqiyeshuliangbizheigeshuzihaiyaogengduoyixie,yinweiyouyixiexiaoxingqiyeshimeiyouqubandaotixingyexiehuizhucede。zheimeduodeqiyezhizuole380yimeijindexiaoshoue,zheishiyigefeichangkeliandeshuzi,ruguoqudiaohuaweihaisiheziguangzhanruiliangjiagongsijiaqilaidedagai100yimeijin,zaiqudiaoqitaqianshidagongsijiaqilaide50yimeijin,kenengshengxialaide2000jiaqiyezhizuolebudao200yimeijindeshengyi。
congdiyufenbulaikan,shenzhen、beijing、shanghaishizuidadesangechengshi。shenzhenzhuyaoshiyouhaisiyijiaduda,zaijiashangqitadegongsi;beijing、shanghaixiangduilaishuobijiaopingjun,gongsideshulianghuigengduo;erxianchengshiyezaizhuigan,hangzhou、wuxi、xian、nanjing、hefei、zhongqingzheixiechengshidouzaidalidifazhanjichengdianluchanye。
从芯片企业的销售数据上看,中国超过1亿人民币销售额的芯片公司其实只有208家,也就是说90%公司的销售额其实连1亿人民币都不到。congrenyuandejiaodukan,chaoguo100rendegongsiyou150duojia,90%degongsishishaoyu100rende,chaoguo1000rendedaxinggongsizaizhongguozhiyou98jia,shuliangfeichangdexiao。xiangjiaoyuguowaidegaotong3wanren,yingteer10wanren,taiwandetaijidian6wanren,zhongguodaludecongyerenyuanshulianghaiyuanyuanbugou。zhenggexingyeshejirenyuandeshuliangdagaizai16wanzuoyou,renjunchanzhizai20wanmeijinduoyidian。ruguozhongguoweilaixinpianshejideshuliangheyingshouyaochengzhangwubei、shibei,neixuyaoderencaizaizheijinianneizenmebuzuni?
ruguobazheixiexiaoshouexifenchengbagelingyu,qizhongxiaofeimonihejisuanjidezengzhangshibijiaokuaide。yourenshuozhongguodexinpianchuangyexianzaiyijingshiyipianhonghai,shenzhishixuehai,zheiyidianwoshifeichangbutongyide。yinweiwomendexiaoshouzhishiwomenxuqiudedagai10%zuoyou,haiyou90%deshichangdengzhewomenqukaituo,naliyouhonghai?
gerenrenwei,xianzaiheweilaishinianzuoyou,haihuiyousangebijiaodadeyinsuladongzhenggexinpianxingyedefazhan。
diyishizhongguoxianzaibanyanzheyigeshanyaoshuniudediwei,lianjiezhediyishijiefadaguojiahedisanshijie,daliangdedianzichanpindezhizaoshizaizhongguowanchengde,suiraniphonedeshejishizaimeiguo,danshijuedaduoshushizaizhongguoshengchanchulai,ranhouzaixiaowangquanqiugedi。yihou,daliangdedianzishebeiruzhinengqichedouhuizaizhongguojinxingzheiyangdeshengchan,zheishijudadejihui,duizhongguodexinpianchanyelaishuoshijinshuiloutaixiandeyue。
diergeshizhongguoxianzaizaizuodeyidaiyilu,fugaizhequanxinde20yixiaofeiqunti,zheixiequntiyiqiantaiqiongmaibuqidianzichanpin。guoqushinian,zhongguodegezhongyuanzhurangtamenchuanshangleyifuhexie,jiejuelewenbaowenti。weilaideshinian,tamenhuizougenwomenguoquyiyangdelu,xuyaojiadian、shouji、xiaofeidianzidenggezhongwomenjintianyijingxiyiweichangdedongxi,zheixieyidinghuishicongdijia、gaoxingjiabidechanpinkaishiqieru。
disangeshiaijishudailaideshishifanyi,yidanzheiyangdejiejuefanganzaimeigerendeshouji(yekenengshikechuandaishebei)shangshixian,quanqiuderencaikeyiziyoudiliudong,nikeyixuanzerenheyigenixiangshenghuodedifangqushenghuo,yuyanbuhuichengweiwenti。zheigeshihou,tiejinshichangjiuhuibianchengyigexiyinquanqiurencaidezhongyaoyinsu,zheixierencaiyehuidailaizhenggechanyedetisheng。
jintian,quanqiuqian12dadezhinengshoujishengchanshangyijingyou9jiazaizhongguo,weilaidezhinengqiche,worenweidequshiyehuishizheiyang。jinniandecesshangyouliangzhongshengyin,yizhongshengyinshuoweilaizhinengqicheshiyouchuantongchechangmanmanbianhuaerlaide;lingyizhongshengyinshuozhinengqichejiuxiangzhinengshouji,chuantongchechangzailimianmeiyouweizhi,huilunweidaigongchang,pinpaishejihuiyouxinxingdechangshang,jiuxiangjintiandepingguo、sanxing、huawei、oppo、vivohexiaomizaichuantongdeshoujishichangshangqishimeiyoutaiduodeshengyin。
zongtilaijiang,wodeguandianshiweilaishinianshizhongguoxinpiandehuangjinshinian。yifangmian,womenxianzaiyijingkandaolexuqiu,youzugoudeshichangdengzhewomenqutianbu;lingwaiyifangmian,yidaiyiluheqitayinsudouhuiweiquanqiujingjizengzhanghejishuyanjindailaixindexuqiu,huijinyibujiadaxinpiandexuqiu。zheigeshihou,jiukanwomennengbunengzhuazhujihui,sheinenggouzhuazhujihuile。
zaicifenxiangyiweipengyoufajiwo,wofeichangxihuandeyiduanhua:zhongxingshijianyihou,guojiakaishizhongshibandaotixingye。womenzaihulianwangxingyeyijingqudelebucuodejinzhan,youzijidegoogle——baidu,womenyoutengxun,genmeiguochuyuyiyangdeweizhi。danshizaixinpianxingyewomenquewanquanmeiyounenggougenmeiguodeyingteer、gaotong、botongxiangpidideqiye。weilai,zheiyangdegongsiyidingyoujihuichuxian。zheiyangdegongsihuiyishenmeyangdexingshichuxianni?shibushikeyiwanquanzhaochaohuozheshiwanquangenzhemeiguogongsidefazhanjiaobu,yibuyiqujiunenggoushixian?worenweikendingbushizheiyang,xindeshidaiyidingyouxindefangshi。
qunianzaiiccadshang,womentongguozhuisujichengdianludansheng60nianlaibutongshangyemoshidebianhua,laitanxunxinfangshidedaan。xiangguanyuedu:《iccad2018 zhangjingyang:shinianzaizaoyigeti》
芯片设计1.0:系统公司做芯片
zuizaochuxianchuxiandexinpianshejidoushidanshengzaixitonggongsi,yinweineibuchanpinxuyao,suoyizijidingyiheshejixinpian。zheigemoshidehaochuhenmingxian,neibuxuqiumingque,xinpianyanfachulaijiuyoushichang,neibuhezuoxinrendugao,xinpianhexitongxiezuo,xingnengrongyitisheng。
danshisuizheshijiandetuiyi,wentiyehenkuaibaolu,zheiyangdexiezuotixiwangwangshiyirongjurong,yisunjusundeduominuogupai,erqiegengweixiandeshi,yidanxinpianchuwenti,kuadiaodewangwangbudanshixinpianbumen,ershizhenggexitonggongsi。
yidaixinpiandexingnengbishichangshuipingdile10%,yingxiangxitongzhengji10%xiaoliang,wangwanglirunhuijianban,xiayidaixinpiandedaodeyanfajingfeiyehuijianshaohenduo,dierdaichanpinzaicha20%,xiaolianghexinpianyanfatouruhuxiangyingxiang,exingxunhuan,xinpianchuhuoshangbuqu,xitongchengbenxiabulai,3~5daichanpindiedaiyihou,buguangshixinpianshiqujingzhengli,wangwangyinweicaiyongneibuerliudexinpian,xitongzhengjiyebeiyibingtuochen。
suizhexingyefengongdebuduanchengshu,dabufenxitonggongsidoufangqilexinpianbumen,zhuanweicaigoushimianshangzuiyoujingzhenglidexinpian;erbandaotixingyeneibudezhuanyefengongxihua,taijidiankaichuangdechunjingyuandaigongmoshi,gengshirangfablessgongsihuodebaofaxingzengzhang。
芯片设计2.0:独立公司做芯片
xinpianxingyejinru2.0shidai,juedaduoshudexinpiangongsidoushizhuanzhuzaixinpianbenshen;xiangbixitonggongsizhudaoxinpianshejidemoshi,dulixinpiangongsifangqileyige“fubaba”,dedaolezhenggeshijie。
zhongzuozhouzhi,zaigongkaixinpianshichangshang,diyimingdexinpiangongsijibenshangkeyishouge50%yishangdefene,60~80%delirun,erjudadelirunyoukeyitourudaoxiayidaichanpindeyanfa,weichizuihaodetuandui,baochizheiyangdeshichangtongzhili。
tongguoziranxuanze,youshenglietai,huoxialaidedulixinpiangongsidouzaizijidelingyuyouhenqiangdeshichangdiwei;danzheigemoshizaizuijinde5nianyeyudaotiaozhan,mianduilaizi3geweidudejiya,chengben、shijian、fuzadu。
芯片设计3.0:生态链加速做芯片
lixiangdexinpiansheji3.0moshi,kenengbushiyigedantigongsi,ershiyigeliyiguquangongxiangdexinpianjiasushengtailiangongshengtixi,meigexinpiangongsishitezhongbudui,jingquedaji,dandiantupo;ershengtailianzuoweihangkongmujian,wujiaodalou,tigongquanmianzhichi。
fenbingdefangshi,juedinglebingnengzuoduoda,meigedulixinpiangongsidegudonghehexinyuangongdouyinggaigaoduzhonghe,tongguoliyideyizhibangding,tuanjieyixin,tishengneibuxiaolv;tongguoshangxiayouchanyeliandejiaochachigu,tishenggongsidexiaoshouhegongyingliannengli,kuaisuqiangzhanshichang;
xinpiandehexinshijishu,meiyouzhiyi,zuoweidulixinpiangongsi,zuiyinggaitourushijiandeshi,zhuanzhudazaozijidezhangban。mianduiquanqiushichangdezhengmiangongji,liyongshengtailianbuqizijideduanban,erbushihuashijianzuodemaquesuixiaowuzangjuquan;
zuihou,dulizizhuhenzhongyao,guquanshigongsizuizhongyaodeziyuan,xinpianjishulingxian,chixutouruxuyaoquanqiushichangdelirun,xinpiangongsixuyaogaoxiaoliyongguquan、ziben、zhengcedengduozhonghongli,weichizishendeyoushi。
guoqu20nian,alibabafunenglepingtaishangdedianshang,tigongliuliang、wuliu、zhifuzheixiejichusheshi,rangdianshangzhuanzhuzaichanpinbenshen,yigegeren,yigejiating,yigexiaozuofangdouyongyoulepidishijie500qiangdexiaoshou、wuliu、xinyongnengli,zaidianshangzheigesuipianhuadeshichangshangzuodaolewomenyiqianbuganxiangxiangde“duo、kuai、hao、sheng”,yuanlaishangjiaxuyaozuohaozhenggegongsicainengchenggong,xianzaijianhuachenglezhixuyaozuohaochanpinbenshen,duijiealibabadejichusheshijiuchenggongle。
moerjingyingjintianzaibandaotixingyezuodeyeshiyiyang,tongguowomendeshejifuwu、liupianfengce、rencaiqiyefuwu,yeshixiwangfunengxinpiangongsi,rangxinpianchuangyezhekeyizhuanzhujishu,wuhouguzhiyoudihuisamengxiang,yongyouhequanqiulingxiangongsiyizhenggaoxiadediqiheshili。
分享:张竞扬,摩尔精英创始人兼CEO,摩尔创投创始合伙人。本文根据张竞扬2019年1月在San Jose的分享速记整理。
airuhechixushentoupinganchengshi?anfangqiyeweihefenfen“jinjun”shangye?zhihuijiaotongchule“danao”haigaiguanzhushenme?ruhezhuazhunjiatingshequanquanlingsandeshichang?
2019nian5yue23/24ri,yioujiangjubangiis2019zhongguozhihuichengshifenghui,bencifenghuijiangyanxuqianliangcihuidezhuti,yaoqingzhimingzhuanjiaxuezhe、xingyelongtouqiye、biaoganchuchuangqiye、zhimingtouzirendeng,jujiaojishuzaizhihuichengshilingyu(pinganchengshi、zhinengshangye、zhihuijiaotong、jiatingshequanquan)deyingyongxianzhuangjiweilaifazhan。
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