本文来自微信公众号：当下Tech（ID：dengling40）
benlaizheiwenzhangbaganhuodoudouloudechabuduole，danzhishiyouyigewenti——yibandeduzhekanqilaibijiaohuidubudong，yinweitaigan、taizhuanyele。
jiashangbizhezuijinyeyizhizaiyanjiuhongmengdewenti，suoyigancuixieyipianyoudiankepuxingzhidewenzhang，zailiangcainvdeguandianzhiyinxia，bazheigewentishuoshenshuotou。
至于wenti，bucanyu。bushimeihuashuo，shiyinweisuishikenengyoubianhua。birutt，kansiwujiedewentijuranyoulejiefa，danzheigejiefayouchuangjianzaijicuiruodejichushang。
风云长宜放眼量，说说那些我们自己能把握的问题，只有我们自己能把握的问题，才有讨论价值。
为什么要有鸿蒙？
2009nian，huaweidegaocengzuzhizaiyiqikanlechangzainandapian《2012》，renzhengfeikanlehouhenzhenhan。
anrenlaodangniandexiangfa，zhenggerenlei，doukeyizaiyiyezhijianmianlinmiewangdezainan，yigeqiye，youzenmenengmeiyouyouhuanyishi。yushitachenglile2020shiyanshi，laiyanjiujichuxiangmu，zhaohuaweizengzhangdedicengshuxuemoxing。
jieguo，zhendezai2012nian，huaweiheshanghaijiaodakaishihezuo，gaoqilecaozuoxitongdezizhuyanfa。weilezhengmingzheijianshi，bizhezhaolaileyizhangkenengshidangshiyonglaizuohuibaodepptzhaopian，zheifenppthaixianshi，gaixiangmuzai2012nianhuodeguojiakejijinbuerdengjiang，bingqieyijingyongyuhuaweishoujideanquanmokuaizhong。
meiyourenzhidao，zheijiushihongmengdekaitou。
受近两年来美国对华为穷追猛打的影响，很多人有了一个印象——鸿蒙=华为对应的PLAN B，也就是说，如果没有谷歌在安卓上的发难，就永远不会有鸿蒙。
这显然是一个从根儿上就有偏差的理解。
鸿蒙初生，是华为的忧患意识决定的，就像任正非在好多年前谈海思一样，他当时说：“我们可能坚持做，几十年都不用，但是还得做。一旦公司出现战略性的漏洞，我们不是几百亿美金的损失，而是几千亿美金的损失”。
xianzaikan，zheijuhuahaoxiangyiyuchengchen。
zhiyudangshishibushijiubahongmengdangzuoanzhuodebeitai，bizhedelijie—bushide。womengengqingxiangyurenwei——huaweikenengcongshinianqianqijiukaishiyishidaoyijianshi，bixuyouzhenggecaozuoxitongfangxiangdeplan b，bixuyouzijidedicengcaozuoxitongjishujilei，yibeibushizhixu。
但一开始的重点肯定不是手机操作系统，应该说，一开始这就是一个边界模糊的计划，它反而显示了——华为在那时候就有一个预期：对于未来的世界，华为的提供的设备将不仅仅是通讯设备和手机，而还将涉及物联网，物联网则包括自动驾驶、工业自动化等方方面面。（这得想的多远？）
weishenmezheimeshuoni？zhuyaoshiyaoconghongmengdedingyilailijiede，hongmengdebiaozhunjieshaoyikaitoujiushi——hongmengshiyigefenbushidecaozuoxitong。
zheigegainianbijiaojianshen。danwomenkeyizheiyanglijie，qishiwomenxianzaidemeigezhinengshebeidouyouzijidecaozuoxitong，birunidezhinengshouji、zhinengshoubiao、zhihuiping、zhinengjiajushebei。
danshi，zheixiexitongkaifadeshihou，geyougedediceng，birushoujikenengshiiosde，shoubiaokenengshianzhuode，zhinengpingkenengshilinuxde……tamenzhijiankeyitongxun、keyixietong，danxiaolvdixiaerqie“zhihui”youxian，shuobailebijinggejiaxitongdedicengbutaiyizhi，datongshigefuzadehuoer。
但鸿蒙就没有这个问题，它的本质是，通过一套分布式的系统，让每个设备上的操作系统都可以方便的互通，从而让一组相互连接并能交换信息的设备，形成一个智能网络。
所以，鸿蒙与其说是一个操作系统，不如说是一组操作系统，架构在鸿蒙上的这些设备之间可以相互通信，可以共享网络上其它的资源，而且由于来自一个底层架构，所以协同的效率很高。
jiuhaoxiangzhiliwangyuechezheishi，weishenmehennanni？yinweigonganjiaoguan、yunguan、gongshangdoubushiyigexitongde，chifafangxiangheguidingyeziyouyitao，suoyipeiheqilaijiuhennan。erbijiaohaodezuofashi，basuoyoudehewangyuecheyouguandebumendoutongyidaoyigechangshejigouliqu，sheliyige“wangyuecheguanliju”，zheiyang，zaihegui、shanglu、zhifafangmianjiuxiantiannengxietongyizhile。
据说，鸿蒙操作系统还能够与印刷电路板、交换机、路由器、智能手机以及数据中心等兼容。也就是说，你能想到的一切设备，都能用lianheqilaibingqiegaoxiaohudong，erqiexiadaoxiaofeijishangdaogongyeji，doulianchengyiti。
huaweidexiongzhenda，bu，shixinxiongzhenda。
danshirenlaoyebushishenxian，tayebingmeiyouyucedao2019nianyilaideguojiguanxiniliu，yemeiyouyucedaogugexiashoudefangxiang，suoyihongmengdekaifayizhizaijinxing，danbingmeiyoutebiepianxiangshoujiduan，ershigengpianxiangwulianwang……suoyi，dangtufawentichuxianshi，renlaoturanfaxian，hongmengzaishoujiduandechengshuduhaibugou，xianzaihaibunenghenhaotidaianzhuo，suiranzheizhishigeshijianwenti。
dangran，hongmengyeyizhimeizenmezuoguoxuanchuan。biru，2015nian5yue20ri，zai2015huaweiwangluodahuishang，chuxianleliteos，dangshidejieshaoshi“liteosshihuaweigongsijiyuhuaweibenshendechuanganhetongxunwangluokaifadeyigecaozuoxitong，jiejuedeshiwulianwangshebeidegujianhelianwangwenti”，qishi，zheijiushihongmengdechuciliangxiang，zhibuguodangshimeiyoutuchuzheigegainianeryi。
danhoulaiyejieduiyuliteosdefanxiangbuyi，shuomingdangshidehongmenghaizaibijiaochujidejieduan。
wulianwangcaozuoxitong，bingbushiyigebishoujihuozhediannaocaozuoxitong“diyidang”degainian，shishishang，tadeyaoqiugenggao。huaweicengyougeyuce，dao2025nian，wulianwangshebeishulianglianjiejianghuijiejin1000yige，xindechuanganqibushusudujiangdadaomeixiaoshixinchuxian200wange。mianduizheshangqianyidelianjiexuqiu，yitaoxinde、quanjuxingdexitongbixuyingyunersheng。
也不要觉得物联网的操作系统竞争就不激烈，相反，由于物联网的概念还没有闭合，所以参与物联网竞争的操作系统更多，有Contiki、TinyOS、Nano-RK、t-Kernel，还有快放弃的Tizen(国内现在还可以买到Tizen系统的三星智能电视)，而微软和谷歌也有物联网的野望，前者想从Win10延伸，后者开发了基于Android系统（也有一说是阉割）的Brillo。
yichangyinmidezhanzhengzaojiukaishile，zheici，hongmengshuyuxianfazhilie，yikaishijiumeiyouxiangguoshouzhiyuren。
zenmelijiehongmengyuanzhuo？
zaizheiyidianshang，womenshouxianbayongyushoujideanzhuoheyongyushoujidehongmengxitongzuoduibi，zhiyouzheiyangduibicaiyouyiyi。
hongmengyuanzhuozuidadebutong，qianmianjieshiguole，hongmengxiangtongguofenbushijishu，jiangshoujiyuiotshebeijinxingwuxianzuhe，xingchengchaojizhongduan。
biru，xianzaidajiadejisuanzhongxinshishoujibendidecpuhegpu，danjianglaijiubuyiyangle。cheshangyouhongmeng，jialiyouhongmeng，suanlihecunchukeyifenxiang，budanjiangdileshoujidefuzai，yetigonglegenggaodejisuannengli。guanjianjiuzaiyu，zheixieshebeijiantianranhutong，buyongzuoerci、sancikaifa。
nishuoweishenmecheshangyaoyouhongmeng，jialiyaoyouhongmeng……pengyou，wanwuhuliandeshidaiyijinglaile，nimaidechebuyaoyougaojidejiashifuzhugongnengme？nimaidejiadianbuyaonengzhichizhinengjiajume？zheishigequshi。
anzhuoyaojiejuezheigewentijiubijiaonan，youdaliangdeshipeigongzuo，chufeizheixiezhinengshebeiyikaishidouyonganzhuobandeneihekaifa，danzheihennana。nanjiuzaiyu，anzhuoyaoyitongtianxia，jiuxuyaodaliangdezhongxinkaifaheshipei，yinweianzhuoyijingchengxingle。
danshihongmeng，tashichushengde，tayikaishijiukeyiweilezhichizaibutongdaxiaohexingtaixiadeshebeizhichi，caiquduozhongneihecelve，yiqiuzaimeigeshebeishangdoudadaozuiyouxingneng，lianjieqilaishigengyoujie。
danshizuoweishoujicaozuoxitongdehongmengheanzhuobiqilaizuidadebuzushishenmeni，shimeiyoushengtaidezhichi。
muqianjiyuanzhuoxitong，you300wangeapp。zhei300wangeappshiyidonghulianwangfazhande10nianli，quanqiudekaifazhe、qiye，danjingjielvdezuochulaide，tamenxingchengleyidaojigaodehuchenghe。
鸿蒙可以在很短的时间（比如2~3年）zuzhirenkaifachu300wangeappme？xianranbuneng。
那手机版鸿蒙还有什么意义呢？（黑人问号脸）
shoujibanhongmengdeyiyijiuzaiyu，jianronganzhuo。yejiushishuo，neiheshizijide，anzhuodeappyekeyizaiwodehuanjingxiayunxing。
bushiyougugezuogengme？dangugezhinengkongzhizijiqixiadegmsjujuehehuaweideshengtaijianrong，danbunengkongzhizhenggeanzhuoshijie，gugeduianzhuoshijiedezhangkonglihepingguoduiiosshengtaidezhangwobushiyigeliangjide。
zaizheigeshijieshang，houfadecaozuoxitongyaoganchaoxianfade，zhiyoulianggexuanze：jianrongqianzhe，huobujianrongqianzhedanjubeibiqianzhegenghaodeshengtai。
后一种是很困难的，因为你永远无法用一个成功者的成功之道来超越它取得成功（够绕的，但就是这个意思）。
事实上，在鸿蒙之前，中国人已经尝试过自己做手机操作系统，一次是阿里云OS，一次是盛大创新院的VISION OS。
但这两个系统都选择了兼容安卓，为什么没有大成呢？是当时的主持者（当年的阿里和盛大）deziyuan，buzuyizhichizheigexitongzhangda。
biru，aligaochulealiyunos，neizhileanzhuoxuniji，yejiushikeyijianronganzhuo。jieguo，zai2012niande9yue13ri，henduomeitifaxian，dangtianzaishanghaijiangyaojuxingdealiyunyuhongqidelianhefabuhui，huangle。
hongqiyejiushiacer，suirantadebenxingshizuobijiben，danyesuanguojidingliudezhizaoshang，zaioumeihaishihenyourenqide。keyishuo，aliyunosruguomaiguozheidaokan，yesuanjinruzhuliule。
keshi，fabuhuiyingshimeiyoukaicheng。jitianhou，alifangmianshuole，hezuohuobanhongqishoudaolelaizigugefangmiandeyali。gugezhijietongzhihongqi——nimenruguodanganzaiqixinchanpinshangdazaialiyunoscaozuoxitong，gugegongsijianghuijiechuyuhongqizaianzhuochanpindesuoyouhezuohexiangguanjishushouquan。
zheiduanlishi，dangxiatechzixixieguo，qingcanyue《ruguohuaweimenghui2012，jicengjingdeguochanshoujicaozuoxitongmeng》。
gugezheijiagongsi，zaihenduoguorenxinmuzhongdediweihengao，suoyi，tazaizhongguodesousuoshichangbeibaidujibai，tongqingtadequehenduo。zaianzhuodefazhanshishang，gugeyequeshizuolehenduogongxian，danshi，taheyiqiezibenjiayiyang，duiyousunzijiliyideshier，shiganjinshajuede。
其实，严格意义上讲，谷歌虽然有安卓的商标权，但谷歌的安卓只是安卓大家庭的一个分支（当然是最有影响力的分支），zheizhongyingxianglizhuyaotixianzaiyingjianzhizaoshangxuyaoshiyonghenduoanzhuodeshouquanhegugedeyingyong。suoyi，dangniandeacerhuangle，xianzaidehuaweidangranyingqiduole，zijigan。
buguo，yebieshuodangnianalibuxing，jushuomayunbabazhichialiyunosxitongdelidu，yijingdaolechuqianjijiangjin2yitaizhongdiduanshoujiyuzhuanglealiyunos，danaliyunhaishimeiyoubeifuqilai。
weishenmeni？yinweimeiyouyiyi，aliyunkeyijianronganzhuo。danjiranyuanshengdekeyiyong，weishahaiyaoyongjianrongde？chufeinizuodebiwodetiyanhaohenduo，dandangshidealiyunosyouzuobudao。
aliyundangshidechayihuashishenmeni？shisuoweide“yunshouji”，yejiushiyingyongzaibendi，jisuanzaiyunduan，dan2012niandeshihou4ghaimeiyoupuji，yunshoujidegainianhenhaodanpaobuqilai，alizijideyingyongyehenshao，yonghubuhuiweiyongyige“yunshouji”bandetaobaojiuqupengchangnidecaozuoxitongba？
zheilimianhenzhongyaodeyidian，shialidangshimeiyouzuoshoujiyingjiandenengli，eryuanyijieshoualihuaqianyuzhuangde，doushipeizhijiaodideguochanshouji。xinshengdecaozuoxitong+luohoudeyingjian，zheibushigeyouxiyinlidezuhe。
ruguodangniandealiyunosyourujinhuaweiyiyangxilideyingjianlaichengtuo，womenwanquanyoukenengkandaoyigexindeguochancaozuoxitongdejueqi。
suoyi，bizhecaiyaoshuo，ruguoyouyitianhongmengbandeshoujizhendechulaile，dajianengzhichidehaishizhichiyixia，buyaomianqiang，lvejinmianbozhilijiukeyi。
weishenmeshuobuyaomianqiangni？yinweiyigehoufaxitongyaoshixiangchaoyuezhiqiande，tabixuyouzijidutedeyoushi——biruioszhiyuanzhuo，jiugengliuchang、anquan、jingmei，youbiruanzhuozhiyuweiruandesmartphone，jiugengkaifang、youhua、kaiyuan。
suoyi，yaomeshiyoushashoujideyingyongtiyan，yaomeshiyougenghaodeshengtai，nizongdejihuanyongnidexiaofeizheyigeliyoushibushi？
congjintiankanlai，hongmengshiyoujihuide，yize，jintiandehuaweibidangniandealizaiyingjian、wulianwang、tongxunfangmiandejichuhaotaiduo，zaishichanghaozhaoli、xiaofeizheqingganshangyededaogengduodetongqinghezhichi。
danniyaoshuo，zheihaididangbulegugedeshengtaiyoushia。
是，抵挡不了。
suoyi，yuanbenhuaweihongmengdeluxian，shiquxianjiuguo——shoujishangwojiuyonganzhuo，ranhouancuocuodewanglimianbuduanjiahongmengdejishu。ranhouwozuowaiweia，zuowulianwangxinpian，zuo5gwulianwangyingyong……dengdaosannianwuzai，nichuleshoulineitaishoujihaishianzhuode，zhouweisuoyouderuanjianheyingjianyingyongdoushihuaweihuobaohanhuaweijishudeshihou，dangnimenjiadebingxiangkongdiaoxiyijireshuiqi，douneizhihongmengdexinpianheweineihedeshihou，nihaichouxiaofeizhebukaolvhuangehongmengdeshoujime？
shide，zheijiushianduchencang、jiadaomieguo……kexi，tianbujianian，hongmenghaimeiyouzuohaozhenzhengdeshengtaizhunbei，anzhuodetiaozhanheyinzhaojiulaile。
zhongguo，shihongmengzuiyoulidehoudun
这个先放一个观点出来——鸿蒙要想崛起，必须在中国，必须依靠中国消费者。
zheibushishenmedaodebangjia，qianmianshuole，buyaomianqiang，haoyongzaihuan。
danweishenmeshuohongmengdejueqi，qujueyuzhongguoni？
因为任何一个操作系统的崛起，都取决于用的人的多少，进而由这群用户总量所产生的经济价值，决定开发者的取向和选择。
weishenmegugezhiganfengshahuaweiyijia，duiqitayehenlihaideguochanshoujichangshangquebuwenbuwen，shigugezhendexincishouruanme？
qiahaobushi，shiyinweianzhuoyexuyaozhongguo，quanqiu1/2deanzhuoshoujishizhongguopinpai，quanqiu1/4deanzhuoshoujimaijizhongguoyonghu。jiuliangooglewangzhanzijipiludefeishoujileiodmhezuohuoban，yigong50jiazuoyou，doushizhongguoqiye，jutilaishuo，7chengzaishenzhen，jin3chengzaishanghaidiqu。
suoyi，meiyoulezhongguo，anzhuoderizi，huoshuogugederiziyehuiguodehennan。
weishenmeshuozhongguodexiaofeizheyouliyouzhichihongmeng，worenweibixukaolvdaojidian：
1. congzuiqiandecengcishuo，zhongguoxiaofeizheduiyugugexiappdeyilaiduwei0，yiqiedouyouqieyougenghaodeyingyong，suoyigugezaizhongguodecunzaiganhendi；
2. 中国有发展最快的应用创新层的互联网企业（BAT\TMD），yeyouwanzhengdetongxun-wulianwang-5gjiejuefangantigongshang，yidanruqianwensuoshude，jiyuhongmengdehulianwang、wulianwang、chelianwangzhendechengleqihou，yongyou14yishoujiyonghuqiemeiyougugeyilaizhengdezhongguo，shishijieshangdiyigenenggouchengjiuhongmengchengweiyige10yijishengtaidezuifenghoudeturang，quanqiuzaiyemeiyouzheiyanghaodeturang；
3. hongmengduianzhuoyouwushidetaidu，budanxuanzejianrong，erqiezhichiyizhi。huanjuhuashuo，laodeyingyongyizhidaohongmeng，zhixuyaozaiduoshebeihudongdegongnengzhongshiyongxinapizengliangkaifa，dadajiangdiyingyongshipeinandu。
4. zaiguge、pingguodeyingyongshangdianzhong，jinsichengdeshouruyouzhongguokaifazhegongxian，zhongguokaifazhezaojiushixiansanfentianxiayouqiyi，jiangshiweilaiyidongshengtaizhongzuizhongyaodekaifaliliang。
华为消费者业务全球生态发展部总裁汪严旻最近透露，华为自建的HMS生态问世刚刚一年，已经取得十分不错的进展：拥有180万开发者，HMS集成应用9.6万个，活跃用户4.9亿，应用累计分发量2610亿。在体量上已经拥有与谷歌GMS、苹果IOS生态抗衡的能力。
nikenenghuishuo，haiyougengduodeappni？zuijinhulianwangnvwangxuxinganghaofaleyigeshipin，tashuo，renmenchangyongdeappzhiyou12ge，zuiduobuguo20ge……yejiushishuo，shengtaiqiehuanzheishi，meiyounixiangxiangzhongzheimenan。
zaishuozhongguoxiaofeizhechuleqinghelizhiwai，haiyoushenmezhichihuaweideliyouni，you！
zaiyidongshengtaizhong，guge、pingguodeshuangguatoulongduanyijingchixushiyunian，duiyubaokuokaifazhezaineidechanyegegehuanjiedoubushiyijianhaoshi……danshizheiyijingshijichengshishile，neime，zaiweilaidewulianwang、chelianwangfangmian，womenzizhudeyuansuduoyixie，shibushiyigeduiwomenzhenggejingjixitongdouyouyiyidedashiqingni？
nishuohongmengdaodihaozainali？zuijin，bizhemaileyitaidazailehongmengderongyaozhihuiping，zhiyao1999yuan，keyishuoyichangdeliuchang；erneitaidazaileanzhuo8.0jiagejinwandesuonidianshi，xianzaifangshipinyijingkaishikale……10yue，dazaihongmengdehuaweishoubiaohuiwenshi；11yue，dazaihongmengdezhinengjiadianhuiwenshi……yichangcongwaiweibaochaoshentoudehongmengdafa，xianzaizhengzaiyidiandiandiluchuzhenshidemianrong。
jushuo，hongmengdezhixiang，shiweilaisanfentianxiayouqiyi，womenzhuyuantamengxiangchengzhen。
本文来自公众号：当下Tech（ID：dengling40）