本文来自界面新闻
折叠屏手机能不能量产？能不能降价？应用生态能否适配？这些都是摆在折叠屏手机面前的难题。
随着galaxy foldhehuaweidezuixinshoujimate xzaijiangebudao4tianshijianneifenbieliangxiang，cengjingbeichengweigainianchanpindezhediepingshouji，zhongyurangxiaofeizhemenchushoukejile。
sanxinghehuaweizheiyangdedaxingshoujichangshangxiangjituichuzhediepingshouji，yijingzhanshichuyizhongqushi：zhediepingshoujijubeilebijiaowanshandechanpinchengshudu，keyigenxiaofeizhejinxingqinmijiechu。
danzheikenengzhishiyikuanxinxingxiaofeidianzichanpinzouxiangshichangdediyibu。
suiranzhediepingshoujipingjiezhejingyandeyingjianwaiguanbodemantangcai，danzaizhenzhengmianduidaguimoxiaofeizhezhiqian，yijiuyouzhezhuduobuquedingxing。
华为Mate X的起售价高达2299欧元（约合17416元人民币），将在今年年中销售，Galaxy Fold的起售价为1980美元（约合13377元人民币），jiangzaijinnian4yuefenxiaoshou。
“taiguile，yebuzhidaonaibunaiyong。”yiweishoujiaihaozheduijiemianxinwenjizheshuo，tazhinengbamuqiandezhediepingshoujikanzuoangguideshiyanpin，bingbunengqudaixianzaizhengchangshiyongdeshouji。
zaizhengshifashouyiqian，xiaofeizheduichanpindequanmiankanfahaibudeerzhi，dankeyiquedingdeshi，ruguozhediepingshoujishituquanmiantuposhichang，haixuyaojiejuesandahexinwenti：liangchan、jiageyijiyingyongshengtai。
weishenmezhediepingshoujiliangchannan？
zaozai2017nian，zhedieping、rouxingpingyijingzaigegepingmuyuanqijiangongsiyouguozhanshi，dandaozhenzhengzhediepingshoujideliangchan，yijingwanle2nianshijian。zheikenengshibirenheyicipingmuxinjishuyingyongdougengzhangdezhouqi。
congxingtaishangkan，kezhedieshoujimuqianchuxiandezhediefangshifenweineizhe、waizhe、zhesanzhe、xiangxiazhezheisizhong。biruhuaweimate xcaiyongdeshiwaizhe，galaxy foldzecaiyongneizhedefangshi。
折叠屏样式，图片来源于国盛证券研报。
guoshengzhengquanfenxishizhengzhenxiangshuo，waizheshishejishipingmuxianshizaizuiwaitou，rongyiyuwaiwujiechu，duiyujishuyaoqiuxiangduijiaoqiang。neizhedepingmuzeshizailimian，xiangbiwaizheqipingmugenghaobaohu，kenengneizheshijinruliangchanjieduandeshijianhuibijiaokuai。
danwulunneizhehaishiwaizhe，qixuyaojiejuedehexinnandianyiranyouliangfangmian：pingmubenshenhejiaolianjishu。
rouxingpingmusuirankeyiwanquhezhedie，dangenjinshuleisideshi，rouxingpingmuzhangshijianwanzhehuizaochengbukenidepohuai，yingxiangchanpindeshouming。
weilequebaofoldzaizhediekaiheshangdenaiyongxing，sanxingbiaoshishoujijingguole20wancideshijiceshi，keyizaimeitiankaihe100cideqingkuangxia，wunianbuchuwenti。
bandaotiyanjiufenxishiyangjianduijiemianxinwenjizheshuo，rouxingpingkeyizuodaokezhedie，danshizhichengmozuhou，yaozuodao20wancidezhedieerbuchuwenti，xianranbingburongyi，xuyaozaiyuanyoudejichuzhishangzuoyixiliedegailiangheyouhua。
qizhongdeyuanyinzaiyu，rouxingoledpingmozubenshenjiuhenbo，danshirengbaohanlehenduocengdejiegou，yaoxiangshixianchusedekezhediegongneng，jiubixujinkenengjiangdipingmumozudehoudu，zengjiagecengjiegoudeqiangdu。zheiqizhongdeguanjianzaiyupianguangpian、gaiban、bomo、ocajiaodeng。
屏幕器件分布设计图，图片来源于芯智讯。
首先是偏光片。以三星的产品为例，其屏幕Infinity Flex显示屏中的偏光片的厚度相比于以往降低了45%。而目前具备高端超薄偏光片生产能力的主要为日本日东电工（Nitto Denko）和住友化学（Sumitomo），产能有限。
qicishigaiban。muqiandeshoujipingmugaibanfanganjuncaiyongbolicailiao，bolisuirankeyizuodehenbo，yenengshixianyidingdewanzhedu，danjibianshikeyishixiankezhedie，yehenrongyisuilie。suoyikezhediepingdegaibanjiubixuyaocaiyonggaofenzibomolaishixian。muqianjubeizhediepingcpigaibanshengchannenglidechangshangzhuyaoweihanguokelonggongye、ribenzhuyouhuaxueyijihanguoskcsanjiacailiaodachang。
CPI薄膜，图片来自芯智讯。
zuihoushigaoxingnengdeocaguangxuejiao，zheishishixiankezhediepingdeguanjian。duiyuzhediepinglaishuo，qipingmudezhediechuxuyaochengshou20wancidezhedieerbuchuxianwenti，zheijiuyaoqiuocajiaoyebixunenggouchengshou20wanciyishangdewanzheergongnengbushouyingxiang，zaiwanzhehetankaiguochengzhonghaixujubeiyidingdeliudongxing，tongshiyouyaobaochinianxingbutuojiao，yincijishunanduxiangbiyuyiwangdafutigao。
chulepingmubenshen，haiyouyixiangshipingmuyupingmulianjiechudejiaolianjishu。baokuosanxinghehuaweizaineidechangshang，rujindouzaixinchanpinzhongcaiyongzheixiangjishu。suiranxianzaihenduobijibendiannaochanpinyeguangfanshiyonglejiaolianjishulianjiepingmuhezhuji，danzhedieshoujidekaihepinlvkenengyuanyuangaoyubijibendiannao，ruherangjiaolianjingjiunaiyongyeshiyigejiweiguanjiandewenti。
华为自主设计的铰链示意图。
genjuzhiqianhanguomeitidebaodao，sanxingfoldcaiyongdezhuanzhoushiyouhanguochangshangkhvatecgongying，danshizhuanzhouzhongkenengcaiyongdechilunyuchuandongjiegoubingweiyouxiangguanxinxi。ciwai，sanxingfoldzhediejiegoudangzhongdeweixingchuandongjiegoushiyouguangdongjinlibiansugufenyouxiangongsigongying。
yangjianshuo，sanxingfoldshixiankezhedietexingdeguanjianqijiangongyingshangjibendoushirihanchangshang。nenggoubeidaguimoshangyongzaikezhediepingshangdechangshangquefeichangzhishao，birumuqiannenggoubeiyongyushangyongzhediepingdecpi、oca，guoneimeiyouchangshangnengzuo，daduohaishizaibujujieduan。
三星可折叠手机核心材料供应商，图片来源于三星。
weishenmezhediepingshoujijiagerucianggui？
根据IHS预测，可折叠AMOLED面板的出货量有望在2025年首次达到5000万台，预计到2025年，可折叠AMOLED面板占AMOLED面板总出货量的8％（8.25亿），占灵活AMOLED面板总出货量的11％（4.76亿）。
全球已规划的柔性OLED量产线，图片来源于IHS。
muqianquanqiunengshengchanrouxingoledchanxiandegongsibingbuduo，baokuolehanguogongsisanxing、lg，zhongguogongsijingdongfang、weixinnuo、huaxingguangdianhetianma。qiliangchanshijianjibendouzai2018niandao2023nianzhijian。
huaweifangmianduiwaichengren，qipingmugongyingshangweizhongguogongsijingdongfang。jiexialaijiniandeshijian，rouxingpingmudechannengjianghuodeshifang，zheikenengshijiangjiadequshi。
jinianhou，jibianpingmubenshendeyishunlidaguimoliangchan，danyaoyingyongzaishoujishang，zeyoushilingwaiyidananti。
guoshengzhengquanfenxishizhengzhenxiangdebaogaozhongtidao，muqiankezhediepingyingyongyushoujiyijiuyouhenduokunnan：
pingmulianglvwenti。congchuantongshoujidaokezhedieshoujifazhanguochengzhong，lingpeijianchengbendafuzenggao，yuanyinzaiyulianglvmeinengtigao。
xuhangwenti。pingmubiandahoudaozhidexuhangnenglixuyaodianchijishunengyoutupo，tishengzhengjixuhangnengli。
shexiangtoumozuwenti。zhediefanganshejinandujiaoda，youyuyonghuduishoujiqingboduyouyidingyaoqiu，suoyishexiangtoumozudengjunyoujiaogaoyaoqiu。
gaibancailiaolaiyuanwenti。muqiangaibancailiaozhuyaoyouzhuyou、skhailishidengguowaichangshanglongduan。
houduwenti。butongdezhediefangshi、zhediepingzhongjiandefengxiwenti，douhuiduihouduyouyidingyingxiang。
sanrewenti。shoujisanrewenti，zaixuyaokongzhishoujihoududebeijingxia，huixuyaogengduoyouzhidecailiaogongyingshang。
可折叠屏幕手机产业链，图片来源于国盛证券。
yisanxingdekezhediepingshoujiweili，qiyuanqijianchengbenyaobiiphone xsgaochuyue65%，qichengbenzengjiaxiangzhuyaoweipingmumozuhejiaolianyuanqijian。
birupingmumozuchaoguole200meiyuan，ciqiandepingmuchengbenjinyao100meiyuanzuoyou，zengfuchaoguole100%。zaijiaolianshejizhong，hanguochangshangfanganzexuyao150meiyuan~200meiyuan，guoneichangshangkeyizuodao100meiyuanzuoyou。
可折叠手机元器件成本对比，图片来源于国盛证券。
应用开发者的欲望
shoujipingmudebianhuajiangjidayingxiangyingyongkaifazhedejiaohusheji。erzaipingmukezhediezhihou，shoujiyingyonghuicongdangechicundepingmufazhandaoshipeiduogechicunpingmu。ruguoweilaishoujichangshangtuichuduozhongzhediepingmufangan，neimeshipeidefenbianlvbiliruguoyoudabianhua，huidaozhiyingyongxianshiwenti。
yisanxinghehuaweidezhediepingshoujiweili，tongguozhediepingshebeideliangzhongbiantixiaoguo：shuangpingshebeihedanpingshebei，dangzhedieshi，shiyibushouji，erdangtazhankaishi，jiubianchengleyitaipingban。yingyongxuyaobuduanqiehuan。
2017nian，pingguofabuiphone xzhihoushiyongleliuhaipingdesheji，suihouxuduoshoujigongsiyegenjinshiyongzheizhongpingmu。dangshixuduoyingyongchangshangyinweishipeixingdewentierbeishoukunrao。
mouyuehuoguoqianwandeappzuijinjiedaolelaizisanxingyaoqiuqishipeizhediepingshoujideshenqing。buguomuqiantamentuijindeyiyuanbingbuqiang。“duanqineibuhuitebiehuajingliquzuoshipei，erqieyonghuguimoyouxian，haishixiwangchangshangzijinengxianzaixitongcengmianzuoshipei。”gaiappxiangguanfuzerenbiaoshi。
zaijishucengmian，yingyongshipeishoujiqishibingbufuza，danquexiangdangfansuo。“shipeiliangkuaipingmuqishiheshipeixuanzhuanshiyigedaoli，douxuyaoxiangaixitongdekuanhegao，nandubusuantaida。”yiweiguoneizhuliuhulianwanggongsidekaifazheduijiemianxinwenjizheshuo。
yinweixuqiubijiaoxiao，suoyihenduoappdeshipeixuyaodengdaodaduoshugaoduanyonghuzhengshinadaoshoujihou，jinjigeyueneihenduoxiaoxingapphuiyinglaishipeiquexian，dandachangchupindeapphuidiyishijianshipei。
“zheiqishijiuyoudianxiangshibawangyehetupiananbilituozhuaichengbutongdaxiao，danpingheshuangpingjiushiliangtaokuangaoshuju，qiehuandeshihoushipeibutongdekuangao，heshupingqiehuandaohengpingdeneizhongpingmuxuanzhuanshipeidegongzuoliangchabuduo。”lingyiweiyouxikaifazheshuo。ranhougugedicengyehuizidongbangmangshipei，zhiqiananzhuochuguofenpinggongneng，yeshijiangpingmujinxingqiege。
“wulunruhezheigezhengzhengfangfangdepingmudoubuhuibiliuhaipinghaimafan。”shangshukaifazhebuchongdao。
keyiyujideshi，zhediepingshoujizaijiejueyingyongwentizhiqian，shouxianxuyaoxiangbanfaranggengduorenshiyong。bijingzaishoujichuangxinyijingjiweihuanmandedangxia，zheichangpingmudekuanghuankeyimanzuxiaofeizhezugouduodeqidai。
（界面新闻记者郑洁瑶、周伊雪、彭新对此文亦有贡献）
本文来自界面新闻